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I did a detailed analysis of WR drops today. From year to year, the league-wide drop rate is 6.5%. In a given season, a simple model where every receiver has a 6.5% chance of dropping a given pass, accurately reproduces the league wide drop frequency distribution. The correlation between drop rates in 2022 and 2023 for a given receiver was only 0.2.
Stripping through all the math, no receiver in the NFL has better hands than another. The simplest representation is that all NFL receivers have a 6.5% chance of dropping any given pass.
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