It's damn unlikely that Caleb Williams is the next Mahomes. People who ask that question don't appreciate just how "generational" a talent Patrick Mahomes is for the Chiefs.
MAHOMES IS IN A CLASS BY HIMSELF IN NFL HISTORY. The way we keep stats creates an illusion that other QBs can compare to him. But in situational metrics, he's killing the entire NFL---even historically great QBs like Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning or Drew Brees don't compare.
On this point, I'll present an article from Seth Keysor (Chief in the North Substack)
“Patrick Mahomes is breaking statistical analysis.”
I wrote those words almost two full years ago, when I wrote about how Mahomes has managed to dominate the league statistically in a way that causes him to break almost every single chart he’s a part of.
Since that time, one would expect that Mahomes’ statistical absurdity would cease, or at least slow down. After all, the NFL is designed to humble everyone and create parity. Multiple very talented quarterbacks have exploded onto the scene who should narrow the gap between Mahomes and the field. Defenses are gunning for the best way to slow down the Chiefs. He lost Tyreek Hill in a trade prior to the 2022 season.
All of these things should have led to a return to relative normalcy for Mahomes. But it hasn’t. Not even close. It seems like every other week or so a new chart shows up with Mahomes being placed so far above the field (and other elite quarterbacks) that he basically breaks the scale. We whistle in amazement and retweet/restack, and then move on.
Today, I’m going to do my best to put all the best of those charts in one place, and explain briefly what each of them mean in practice. The end point is that Patrick Mahomes remains, in a league full of terrific quarterbacks, an outlier. His distance from the field in meaningful measures of quarterback play should not ever be taken for granted, especially doing so over the course of 5 full years. In short; We’ve never seen anyone like this. And that’s what makes him The Outlier.
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This is only the intro to a very long article. I'd post it here b/c Keysor has it unlocked on his substack b/c he's trying to use it to scare up subscriptions. (BTW, I'd recommend it). Plus, it has a huge number of charts that I'd don't know would embed well here.
One glance at these charts shows what an outlier he is. And, until I looked at them, I didn't quite grasp how off the charts Mahimes is for us. So clink the link, you won't be disappointed.
LINK: MAHOMES IS A DAMN UNICORN!