Quote:
Originally Posted by Ocotillo
I don't know if him not pitching in the majors is a big deal when Kodai Senga was lights out and had a Cy Young contender season as a rookie. The evaluators say he's better than Senga.
The posting fee impacts his value more than anything. But everyone thinks he's going to take home $200 million not including the posting fee.
What's remarkable is you never see an ace in MLB hit the open market at age 25.
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Lets assume that he gets $250M, the posting fee, assuming I have this correct, will be $30M. If he was a true ace in MLB at 25 years old he would be getting WAY more than $280M.
The biggest impact on his value is far and away the fact that he hasnt pitched in MLB. The season is longer, the breaks between starts is shorter, and the competition is better. NPB is about equivalent to AAA. If you want to look at Senga, then take a look. He didn't even have a posting fee and he signed for 5/75. He just pitched better than Aaron Nola at basically the same age and Nola got 7/172. But, just because Senga had success at MLB pace, doesn't mean Yamamoto will. The same way prospects on equal level dont have the same success, or a lower tier prospect like Nootbaar runs ****ing circles around Walker in every aspect of the game.