Quote:
Originally Posted by smithandrew051
I feel like Kelce passing Tony G really comes down to how bad he wants to.
Let’s say Kelce ends this year with another 500 yards. That gets him to roughly 11,600.
That puts him 3,500 behind Tony G.
4 seasons averaging around 900 yards gets him there. He can absolutely do that if he stays healthy. Basically 2 more seasons of 1,000+ then two true decline seasons.
Would be incredible but possible.
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Phew - taking 1,000 yard seasons from a 35 and 36 year old TE as an article of faith is sure asking a lot. Tony G never had a 1,000 yard season past 32. Witten never past 30. Sharp retired at 35.
Best I can find there been seven 1,000 yard seasons for a TE after his age 30 season. 3 of those were by Kelce (31, 32 and 33), 2 by Gonzales (31 and 32) Olsen had one at 31 and completely out of nowhere, Delanie Walker at 31.
Granted, the fact that Kelce is already shattering these longevity records pretty routinely helps the argument, but I think we can all acknowledge that he's lost a step this year. Hell, most of us noted that he'd lost one last season.
To get there I think you're looking at 5 more seasons. That's through his age 39 season - Jason Witten went out there at 38 and put up 70 yards through 16 games. I mean at a point there's a threshhold level of ability you need to even have a 30 yard day and I don't think it's likely that Travis is at that level at 39 years old. Those guys just take such a pounding.