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I think this is a 60/40 game for the Ravens. The Chiefs have a real shot, and the X factor is always Mahomes.
But part of the reason the Bills couldn't hang with us when we had the ball was their entire second level of their defense was awful, which threw the entire defense off. The Chiefs best weapons are intermediate threats, and that's exactly where the Bills are weakest.
The Ravens' strength is intermediate coverage. Along with all the heat they put on QBs, it makes them very hard to roast unless you have a smart QB (check!) and great deep field threats (no check).
Offensively I'll be fascinated to see what adjustments Spags makes against the run game. I'd like to see what he did against the Eagles in the Super Bowl last year, and have Bolton sit on Lamar in that RPO. I trust our secondary to slow down the Ravens weapons, though not shut them down. But Harbaugh has been on a heater this year, and his offenses have been four steps ahead of the defense all season.
If Mahomes/Reid can engineer a couple successful drives early and stall up the Ravens, I can see the Ravens going one dimensional and struggling. But any lead is going to be hard to maintain against their defense, and any smart defensive plan can have a hole poked in it by a crazy QB scramble.
I'd take the Ravens over the Chiefs in this game, but the Chiefs have a very real shot at the upset.
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