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Originally Posted by PurpleOrange
Fair point, besides personnel what is this years D doing that is different and/or better?
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They have a better and deeper defensive line. Chris Jones is still Chris Jones (and has continued to show he can move around the line and win different ways, even from DE). Charles Omenihu is the best #2 DL mate Jones has had since Justin Houston in 2018. George Karlaftis took a large step this year and is relentles. Mike Danna improved. They're very deep in pass rushers. The NT spot is still nothing special, but it's fine. Some speculation KC may elevate Buggs this week for this matchup specifically, since he held up so well against the Ravens interior linemen for another team earlier this year.
The biggest change, though, is how good the back 7 is compared to the Kansas City defenses the Ravens have recently seen. Lajerius Sneed has made a season out of flat-out erasing #1 WRs with his physicality and stickiness. He gets some penalties for it (which is why his PFF grade and the Chiefs' PFF coverage grade in general is bad, further proving that Collinsworth's little project is a sham), but he has completely eliminated Justin Jefferson, Stafon Diggs, Davante Adams, and everyone he has followed. Literally the only TD he has given up occurred in the divisional round, and that took a plus-plus play from Allen (rolling to his left, putting a throw exactly on the money with huge velocity) and a plus-plus catch by the receiver (Shakir made an incredibly difficult, all-hands catch to scoop the pass up). Trent McDuffie has been just as dynamic and dominant in the slot. If the Chiefs decide to go with man coverage at points in this game, those 2 are great bets to handle Flowers and Beckham. And I know Bateman has good separation numbers and is dangerous on the backside. But Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams are both good matchups with him (big, sticky, can run, physical, tackle well).
This is the best and deepest LB group KC has had. It has relied on Dan Sorenson and Ben Niemann in coverage spots over the past several years, and that was always an exploitable matchup. No longer the case. Nick Bolton (thanks, Ravens) is an excellent downhill MLB with great instincts and a lot of pop as a tackler. He's not awesome in space and can be exploited a bit there, but he's really smart and particularly effective coming downhill against zone read plays. Willie Gay, if he can play, is crazy fast and strong. He was a real key in limiting Allen's running ability in the first matchup with them and was a big loss in the divisional round. If he can go Sunday, he'll be important. Also is really good coming downhill. Drue Tranquill has been the real step-up for KC, though. He gives them a really reliable backup for Bolton and also a premium coverage LB they have not had before. And Leo Chenal is similar to Gay -big, fast, and strong. He's a good SLB when they're in base sets anticipating run, and has made some steps in coverage.
And KC is still really strong at S. Justin Reid is a physical guy who does what he is supposed to do, consistently. He's not a big playmaker like, say, Kyle Hamilton, but KC doesn't use him that way (playmaking opportunities have shifted to Sneed and McDuffie). I think Reid and Marcus Williams are similar type of guys. Steady, smart veterans who fill their roles really well. Mike Edwards has been really strong as the second safety and effective as the deep man. Hopefully he clears concussion protocol and is good to go for Sunday. The big surprise at S has been rookie Chamarri Conner, who was pressed into full-time action Sunday because of Edwards' early injury. The rookie 4th rounder looks like the latest Day 3 steal by KC's scouting staff. He runs well and is versatile - good tackler, can handle deep responsibilities, has good instincts.
That's a lot of words, but you asked.
To sum it up, this Chiefs' D is better at all 3 levels than it has been in any previous years. There are no glaring weak spots or exploitable matchups/holes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bearcat
I was just looking a bit and a couple things that popped up were the Ravens being 12th highest ever after 13 weeks and then 3rd highest ever after 16 weeks (didn't go digging for week to week).... the 49ers game was in there of course, but demoralizing the Dolphins was a huge push as well and we all know how overrated they were this year, too.
And then when you put up almost 30ppg against the Browns fraud "best defense", I'm sure that goes a long way, too.
There's probably some kind of fraud multiplier effect... Dolphins put up 70 on the Broncos and beat them by 50, then the Ravens put up 50+ on the Dolphins, and ohhh boy, the Ravens must be amazing!
Stats that are so fluid after 13+ games is concerning though... blow out one team and jump 10 spots on the highest ever list.  |
Yeah, that's interesting for sure.
I've done a lot of work with stats, both for fun and for work, and worked with some pretty cutting edge statisticians. Which leads me to what I would argue from a semi-educated position is the biggest issue with DVOA: The sample size of a season is SO small. 17 games is a miniscule data point. Outliers can really mess with it. In situations like that, you kind of need to control the level of the outlier. Maybe DVOA has some things under the hood, behind the scenes, to do that. But it sure suggests it does not when the Miami game skewed things that much.
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Originally Posted by OneWinningDrive
This is a reasoned take that I agree with overall. Seen some of your earlier posts in this thread and think you’re being fair.
DVOA isn’t perfect, but it’s one of the few metrics we have to adjust for a team’s situational success and quality of opponents. But like you’re alluding to, real-world considerations like matchups, scheme, and raw talent can upend the expectations DVOA would have you believe.
I do think that in this case, there won’t be a dismantling of the Ravens the way the Chiefs did to the Bills. Both because the Chiefs don’t have the same personnel as then (Tyreek) and the Ravens are just flat better than the Bills.
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Agree that DVOA is useful if not perfect. I think it's easy to say the Ravens are "flat better than the Bills" but the 20 and 21 Bills had some edges, too.
The Chiefs' O is also different. KC took a blowtorch to those Bills' Ds and did whatever it wanted. Could have named its score. I don't expect that on Sunday.
KC's O also is much less required to do that than they were then.