Quote:
Originally Posted by wazu
Don't necessarily disagree. But whether through indifference or intentions, the result is the same.
It was incredibly meaningful last year and will be again this year. Rest matters in the NFL. From Sharp's report last year:
Week 12: -1 rest day vs Raiders - W 31-17 (Started the game down 17-0)
Week 13: -3 rest days vs Packers - L 27-19
Week 14: -7 days rest vs Bills - L 20-17
Week 15: -3 days rest vs Patriots - W 27-17
Week 16: -4 days rest vs Raiders - L 20-14
Week 17: -2 days rest vs Bengals - W 25-17
So the Chiefs went 3-3 during games where they were at a rest disadvantage, including stunning losses to the Packers and Raiders, and a 3-point loss to the Bills which was massive for the playoff picture. We went 2-0 in the only two games where we had an actual rest advantage. It matters.
Can teams overcome it? Yes. But it deserves to be called out.
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I'm not saying rest doesn't matter, I'm saying a graph like that is seriously overblown. I remember last year the best and worst teams were like +14 and -14... take away one instance where they play a team fresh off a bye or the other way around and they're suddenly grouped in with the other 28 teams that are all one game or so from each other.
And I think you're mistaking the point of those numbers to some degree. The Chiefs looked like absolute dogshit Christmas Day, but they played the Patriots the Sunday before and Christmas Day was a Monday. I'd say the Raiders did look relatively alive, but it's not like the Chiefs made all those mistakes due to the differential of rest between them and the Raiders. It was more likely the cumulative effect of their own season.
They also didn't go down 17-0 solely because they played MNF and the Raiders played the previous Sunday. And even if the Bills were coming off a bye week, their bye had nothing to do with Toney lining up offside or the Chiefs not playing as well as they could.
The Chiefs days off and cumulative effect of short weeks is probably a far better indicator than one team having an extra day off or two... the NFL/NFLPA should look at things like 3 games in 10 days, fix that and you don't have to get into these weeds that aren't really a huge difference between teams anyway.