Quote:
Originally Posted by TwistedChief
I think the best comp in terms of velocity and control is de Grom, and de Grom at his peak has been the most dominant SP I've ever seen. Definitely exciting and we'll see if he can get past the injury history of de Grom/Prior/Wood/Strasburg.
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He can't. He won't.
Anyone that throws like that has been to those 'performance optimization camps' that teach them how to get max velo and spin on every pitch they throw.
Those guys break. Twice. If you're lucky, they come back relatively quickly and almost completely intact.
But Skenes isn't going to hover at 102 mph for 5 seasons. I doubt he makes it 3. He'll break down, miss a year (nowadays they bring them back so slowly it's almost 2), give you 4-5 healthy seasons and probably break down again. Then by 32 when he comes back from the 2nd implosion, he will probably be working around 95-96 and be more like Garret Cole who's made efforts at finding the line between his peak stuff and staying on the mound.
There are no unicorns in these scenarios. We're working the body in a way that gives no heed at all to the fact that ligaments can only take so much strain. And every mechanical tweak designed to increase stuff does so by creating more strain on those ligaments. It's a Sophie's choice.
For me, Skenes should be dialed back. He should be throwing 97/98 with less aggressive mechanics that allow him to throw 200+ innings and get outs with natural movement and stuff that's still damn good.
But MLB teams have decided otherwise. They're willing to grind these guys into powder and if they're not willing to come along for the ride, they tend to get left behind.