Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
Not if you're flipping a coin, no.
But the gamblers fallacy only applies in true random chance.
Getting your interior line stoved in 3 times in a row ain't 'random change' fella.
That's where you continue getting this wrong. Acting like it simple math and chance. It's not - these are actual plays that are needing to be made or not made.
3 times we didn't make them. You can sit here and pretend like it was mere happenstance if we got it a 4th time but that's just lunacy.
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I will (and already have) granted you that it was less likely than the average (65%) that we would convert that given the series of plays that came before it.
The difference is that I accept that risk and would have been fine with the consequence of not getting it (the Bengals on their own 1 up three points in the first quarter is not a bad spot for the Chiefs to be). I may have been more risk averse if it was late in a playoff game in a tight game, but in that scenario? Let's go for it and let the chips fall where they may.