[Direckshun]

Some more detailed analysis. Take it or leave it:

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It seemed as though the Chiefs figured out their offensive woes in their Monday night victory against the Buccaneers. Patrick Mahomes had his best game of the season in a 30-point performance. Instead, it was the Chiefs taking advantage of an injury-ravaged defense that wasn’t good in the first place.

The Chiefs laid an egg against the Broncos, but were bailed out by the blocked field goal. Granted, it was a tough matchup, but so is this one. The Bills have the league’s fourth-ranked EPA defense. That’s not even factoring in Matt Milano’s potential return, as Milano has been cleared to practice. He won’t play in this game, barring a miracle, but the Bills still match up very well against Kansas City. They’re only weak to running backs and slot receivers. Kareem Hunt has been solid in fantasy football, but he’s not good in real life. Xavier Worthy, meanwhile, has been a huge disappointment.

Kansas City will obviously want to attack with Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins. The Bills are strong against outside receivers, though they’ve been weaker to tight ends lately. Travis Kelce has been on a tear since Rashee Rice was lost for the season, so he could continue to play at a very high level.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills also have a matchup edge with their tight end. The Chiefs are one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending tight ends. Dalton Kincaid should be able to take great advantage of this matchup. Kincaid has been a disappointment as a fantasy player this year, but every tight end has crushed the Chiefs, even Isaiah Likely back in Week 1.

The only other area in which the Chiefs are weak is to No. 2 receivers. They tend to double team top threats, so Amari Cooper isn’t expected to do much even if he’s able to return from injury. Keon Coleman would project well, but he’s also hurt. There’s also Khalil Shakir, but the Chiefs have allowed just one slot receiver (Ladd McConkey in Week 4) to beat expectations against them.

The Chiefs are stellar elsewhere. They lock down top receiving threats and the running game. James Cook won’t be able to do much, so Josh Allen may have to scramble more than he would like. Allen hasn’t run much this year compared to prior seasons, but perhaps he’s been saving his legs for big games like this one.

RECAP: I wish I had a strong opinion on this game because it’s the biggest matchup of the regular season. The defending Super Bowl champions will be battling their biggest non-divisional rival in a matchup that could decide the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Who wouldn’t want to bet on that?

The problem is that I just don’t know where to go with it. Common sense says that the Chiefs are the right play. They’re undefeated, and yet they’re 2.5-point underdogs. If all they do is win, wouldn’t it make sense to back them as underdogs?

The public certainly believes the Chiefs are easy money, but there’s a case to be made for Buffalo as well. The Bills built their roster to beat the Chiefs, which they’ve done often in the regular season. Also, Kansas City can’t possibly win every game, so the team is bound to lose eventually. If it’s going to happen, why wouldn’t it against such a great team like the Bills?

I’m going to side with the Bills, but I don’t like the idea of fading Mahomes as an underdog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has moved to +2 in some books, perhaps because Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman missed Wednesday’s practice. Amari Cooper was limited.

Prediction: Bills 23, Chiefs 20