Quote:
Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
Yeah - I looked into this several years back when Jackson had something like 80% of his touchdown passes inside the red zone or goal to go or something like that.
And ultimately it's just not repeatable year over year. And there doesn't seem to be anything specific that is determinative. Very few teams have ever shown themselves to have a rosetta stone in the red zone.
I think it's a sample size issue. 3-4 conversions in any given year can move you halfway up the list and ultimately that could be as simple as a couple uncharacteristic drops, misses or penalties across the board. You can get 6-8 failed conversions by just having normally reliable players fail at a bad time.
With guys like Kelce and Hopkins, not to mention Mahomes, who have a history of reliability, I think you're really just looking at wonky sample sizes and the fact that some of the spam plays we have had in the past have been sniffed out.
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There was a lot of talk about it amongst Bills fans in 2020/2021, which is probably the first time a I got annoyed enough to confirm my suspicion...
https://chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthre...e#post15500345
And the Bills would design a play for Allen to run into a brick wall up 4 touchdowns in the 4th quarter if it meant scoring in the red zone, so of course they're going to convert a few more over the course of a season while Mahomes will save it for the playoffs (usually).
Hell, in terms of that stat being wonky, the Bills and Bears are tied for the 3rd best red zone percentage right now due to how fee attempts the Bears have this season... each Bears attempt moves them 3.5% up or down a ranking where 2/3 of the league are separated by about 10%.