Quote:
Originally Posted by RunKC
Watching the last game again I feel bad for Nazeeh. First pass was a dime. He had good coverage. Threaded the needle. Second pass was also a low percentage pass/catch. Allen barely fit that ball in bounds. Tough tough throw.
The third one was obvious bullshit. He got blasted in the chest on a crossing route that should have been OPI. Blatant bullshit call.
Overall we were outstanding keeping the pocket contained until that last run. Elite stopping the run too.
The real issue with this game was Conner. 3 big missed tackles and a DPI. Two of which were on 3rd and long. Kid did get a pick but overall played terribly.
The story of that game of defense was missed tackles. You can’t give a ton of those up and expect to win.
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Been saying for awhile now.
You can get away with Johnson on the field. Or you can get away with Conner on the field.
But those two really shouldn't be on the field at the same time. They're just too prone to breakdowns and when a team has 3 shots at waiting for one of those two guys to blow a read or coverage responsibility, the odds are just too great that they'll do it.
I mean let's do the math. Let's say that each guy gets through his play 80% of the time WITHOUT making a mistake. That means on any given play, combined probability says there's about a 64% chance that they'll BOTH maintain their responsibility. That's not bad on a single play. The odds of them managing to get through those 3 plays without blowing it, however, is about 26%.
Now put two guys there at 90% assignment sound. That's about 81% on any given play, 53% over the course of the 3 downs. At THAT point, you're more likely than not to survive the set.
And if you have one guy at 80% and the other at 90%, you end up at 37% over the three downs which ain't great, but it's not awful either. Figure that you'll need several conversions to score -- 37% says you're likely to get them off the field before they get too many 1st downs to make it a problem.
Now that's SHITTY analysis, but it's an attempt to quantify the sort of headache that having two guys out there vs. only one who you just can't count on to get the job done.
And to your point, let's set aside the snap to snap or drive to drive question. We see that game to game, perhaps Johnson will have a decent day but there's a pretty good chance that if he does, Conner will fall on HIS face.
We really don't want both those guys on the field.
Spags, evidently, disagrees.