Quote:
Originally Posted by kcbubb
Agree to disagree. I trust the medical evaluation that the chiefs have in place. And pace is not a fair comp. Pace was the number overall pick in 1997 and a HOF player. Just in terms of value and projection (not a ceiling or floor analysis), Simmons probably does compare to Paris Johnson who was the 6th overall pick in 2023. I’m hoping that Simmons will be more successful than Paris but the point I’m making is the value. What would it cost to move from 31 to 6? I’m guessing three 1st round picks if not more. So, the point is getting a CHANCE at a long term LT like Simmons or Paris would cost us three 1st round picks. The payoff for hitting on a 1st round LT at the back of the first on a cheap 5 year contract is like winning the lottery. The reward is huge on the risk/reward analysis.
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Paris Johnson just isn't the feather in your cap you think it is.
A) I think (and thought at the time) that Paris Johnson was overdrafted. That said, in a similar (read: not particularly good) draft for OTs he was a guy that would've been in the mix for the best OL in that draft along with Skoronsi, Wright, Jones and Harrison -- similar to this season w/ Simmons if you presume health. But ultimately, Johnson should've gone nearer 12-15. Which is to say that yes, they may be comparable prospects, but to say that makes Simmons a "6th overall value" is just wrong. Johnson was an overdraft at the time and has proven to be since.
B) NONE of 'em have been very good. The best one had to move inside to OG to find traction in Tennessee. That was a draft full of 'Offensive Tackles' who profiled better at guard and full of guys with limited ceilings/traits. It's turned out exactly as it looked like would and provides a cautionary tale rather than a blueprint as we approach the 2025 draft.
C) Paris Johnson didn't have the injury risk and had a better pedigree along with better track record and more standout physical tools.
"Man, what if he's healthy and is another Paris Johnson" isn't the win you think it is, IMO. And as previously noted, that's the same system that Simmons would be coming from but without the track record, traits, pedigree or accolades that Johnson earned in that same system. There is very little cause to believe he'd be even
as good as Johnson.
And that's IF he's healthy.