Quote:
Originally Posted by kccrow
That's a good way to build upon what I was saying. Two of our last five firsts are busts (well, FAU looks to be at least). If that climbs to 3/6, that's not ideal. You want a higher hit rate than 50/50 on those. We have to hope Simmons keeps us floating on the high end.
Veach tends to hit on some 5th-7th round picks, but it might come to a point where the law of averages comes into play, and then you have no offset to the misses in the meat 'n taters segment.
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Honestly, I think a 50/50 rate is...okay. Given where we pick. It's not ideal, but it's not bad either.
I mean the typical hit rate on 1st rounders is nearer 66% but that's inclusive of those 10-15 'blue chip' prospects every year with an 80% hit rate that drive that number.
If we're at roughly 50/50 we don't suck.
But 'don't suck' doesn't keep you on the top of the mountain for long. Dynasties don't form on 'don't suck'.
And we have some MASSIVE throughput in Kelce and soon enough Jones that are going to start aging out. When that happens, that hit rate kinda has to be better than it's been, especially if Simmons doesn't work out.
We're not AT a puke point yet. But we're getting closer. And should Simmons not work out...well at that point I think we're there. At that point we've gotta have another 2022 draft if we hope to continue running shit. We've used up some of our runway with spotty 1st round results of late and if Simmons doesn't work, that may use up the rest.
That's not to say that we'll crater -- it's to say that we'll have used our grace and we'll need to get things real right, real fast.
I don't remember where I heard it but I heard someone say "We're closer to 'ordinary' than you think..." And he didn't mean that the Chiefs were an average football team or even close to that. But that they'll be in that same pool with Baltimore and Buffalo and Philly where every single year you'll have to get a LOT of things right. And you'll have to get some breaks. And you'll need some career years. Do all that and you might win a SB.
That's not been our reality the last couple years. We haven't needed to get everything right or have a slew of career/breakout years. Miss on Simmons and we're pretty much there, aren't we?