Quote:
Originally Posted by kccrow
Depends on if you believe the 1997 Colts that went 3-13 were that much worse than the 1996 Colts that went 9-7 with mostly the same players and the 1995 Colts that had even less talent and went 9-7. Same QB, better Marshall Faulk, better Marvin Harrison, etc.
If they didn't flop for Peyton Manning, then I'm not sure if anything else would ever be believable. They certainly threw games at the end of the 2011 season to get Luck, who would have likely been generational if he played a full career.
Outside of the Colts, I'm not sure of any clear-cut cases. Most teams suck at least for a year or two before they get the #1. I'm sure we could look back and find some teams tanking a few games to get a top 3 pick or something and give themselves a shot.
|
That's fair. I guess the Colts did manage to get lucky those 2 times, and even squandered Luck. They deserve the football god's wrath for that. I just don't believe in tanking, and I don't think the data favors it, either. If you suck that bad to get to a top 5 pick, there's something very fundamentally wrong about your team that a top pick won't fix overnight.
And even if you are on the lower end of teams and decide to deliberately lose the last few games for a slightly higher pick. Cool, good for you, the odds still say it's a 50/50 chance you're drafting a starter, even if you are a few spots ahead of everyone else. It all just seems to even out in my head.
The only way I could possibly envision it working is Jimmy Johnson's insane method. Sucking for a whole season, trading off any valuable players you have for picks, trading down for even more picks, and then picking the exact right players to rebuild your team from scratch.