Quote:
Originally Posted by Bl00dyBizkitz
That's fair. I guess the Colts did manage to get lucky those 2 times, and even squandered Luck. They deserve the football god's wrath for that. I just don't believe in tanking, and I don't think the data favors it, either. If you suck that bad to get to a top 5 pick, there's something very fundamentally wrong about your team that a top pick won't fix overnight.
And even if you are on the lower end of teams and decide to deliberately lose the last few games for a slightly higher pick. Cool, good for you, the odds still say it's a 50/50 chance you're drafting a starter, even if you are a few spots ahead of everyone else. It all just seems to even out in my head.
The only way I could possibly envision it working is Jimmy Johnson's insane method. Sucking for a whole season, trading off any valuable players you have for picks, trading down for even more picks, and then picking the exact right players to rebuild your team from scratch.
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I don't think the data largely favors it either, though there does seem to be some late-season posturing at times.
In relation to a lottery, that lottery
could just as well end up causing more tanking for position in the top 5 than previously, because at that point you would have a shot at the #1 pick.
I do agree with you on the JJ method. I don't think enough teams just blow it all up and start over when it seems clear they need to do exactly that.
I did do some looking back for the tanking just to see if there was another team I couldn't remember and did notice a bit of a pattern in teams truly turning their fortunes, or so it seemed. I want to revisit it but it looks like teams that took their LT in the top 10 and then took their QB in the top 10 within the next two seasons had the most luck in actually flipping the script.