[keg in kc]

Well, Cody, let's compare the2000 Chiefs with the 2001 Ravens and see what we find:

The Baltimore defense (and special teams, as well) is clearly better than the Chiefs of last year, so there's no need to touch on that.

[b]Running Back[/b]

Tony Richardson, Kimble Anders, Mike Cloud, Frank Moreau and Donnell Bennett vs. Jamal Lewis

Advantage Ravens right?

Not so fast, my friend!

Lewis is a good runner, however there are two legitimate concerns:

1) He's clearly an injury risk.
2) He's simply not a good receiver (27 receptions in 2000). This fact is further evident in one important statistic, in all of 2000 he had 17 carries and 3 receptions on 3rd and 4th down combined. That's about 1.25 per game. Compare this with some other NFL backs from last season:

Eddie George had 37 carries and 16 receptions, 3.3 touches/game.
Marshall Faulk had 19 carries and 17 receptions, 2.5 touches/game.
Edgerrin James had 39 carries and 15 receptions, 3.4 touches/game.

Our guy Tony Richardson had 29 carries and 17 receptions, 2.9 touches/game.

Fact is, Lewis just didn't get the ball after second down. Our new starting back, Priest Holmes, had more touches on 3rd down than Lewis did last year, 10 carries and 13 receptions.

Consider this, as well:[quote][b]Ravens | Keeping Eyes Open for RB?[/b]

July 7, 2001 10:52:05 PT According to SportsLine.coms Len Pasquarelli the Baltimore Ravens may keep their eyes open for a veteran running back in the coming weeks. Rookie Chris Barnes is currently the top backup to starter Jamal Lewis and the Ravens only have undrafted rookie free agents Derek Homer and Aaron Kernek behind Barnes.[/quote]
I wonder if they're looking for someone who can catch...

In any event, I think about it this way: conventional logic would say that the RB situation in Baltimore is a lot better than it was in KC in 2000, but there are problems there if you look carefully. Lewis is not a capable reciever, IMHO (also check his college receiving numbers...), and there's questionable depth, at best, at RB following the departure of Holmes.

I say advantage Baltimore, but not by as wide a margin as most would think. Lewis will run for yardage, but he won't be as good a safety valve for Grbac while under pressure as T-Rich was last season.


[b]Wide Receiver[/b]

Derrick Alexander, Sylvester Morris and Kevin Lockett vs. Travis Taylor, Brandon Stokley and Qadry Ismail.

Advantage KC, by about the same margin as Baltimore won the RB battle, in my opinion. I wouldn't consider either team to have a particularly strong lineup at WR, although Derrick Alexander gives KC the edge.


[b]Tight End[/b]

Tony Gonzalez vs. Shannon Sharpe.

Again, advantage KC, but Sharpe is still a good one.


[b]Offensive Line[/b]

Jeff Blackshear, Tim Grunhard, Victor Riley, Will Shields and John Tait vs. Mike Flynn, Edwin Mulitalo, Jonathan Ogdon, Leon Searcy and Kipp Vickers.

I say that's a push, although it's difficult to completely gauge Baltimore's line without being entirely sure who the starters are...


[b]Coaching/Offensive Coordinating[/b]

Gunther Cunningham and Jimmy Raye vs. Brian Billick and Matt Cavanaugh.

I'm biased, obviously, but this is the one place where I see Baltimore as having a clear-cut advantage over KC.

So, all-in-all, in my opinion, Elvis had a slightly better array of (receiving) weapons at his disposal here in Kansas City than he has inherited in Baltimore, and I will say, without reservation, that he will come nowhere close to repeating his 2000 numbers, in large part because of the fact that the Baltimore offense will be far more balanced than the Raye-Gun Chiefs of 2000, which will result in more team success but fewer personal accolates for Elvis.
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So,considering all of those factors as well as my personal experiences and observations of Grbac, I predict this for Elvis in 2001:

He will finish the season with less than 3500 yards passing, 20-25 TDs and 15 interceptions, and, although he will have played well, he will not be returning to the Pro Bowl (Trent Green, with 3800 yards passing, 30 TDs and 12 interceptions will keep him out). Baltimore will finish 10-6, but fall short of winning a second Super Bowl. How Baltimore will respond to Grbac depends entirely on how well he manages his ego speaking with the media, and how well the team responds to him in the locker room, and I don't care to venture a guess as to how all that will play out. I will say that I think it's entirely possible that they can fail to win the Super Bowl and Elvis still survive, if, and only if, he can keep his foot out of his mouth