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Originally Posted by patteeu
I don't think both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh will make it to 11-5 or better. I don't have the tie-breakers memorized, but if one of them ends up in a 10-6 tie with the Chiefs, the Chiefs will have the better AFC record and the Chiefs will have won the head-to-head against Cinci.
There's also an outside chance that either Jacksonville or Denver will stumble unexpectedly. If Denver loses on Thanksgiving to Dallas and later to San Diego in San Diego, they'd only have to lose one other game besides the one to the Chiefs to hand the Chiefs the division title under your scenario. Admittedly, this is a longshot since Denver would have to lose to either Buffalo, Oakland, or Baltimore, but it's a small possibility on top of the Cinci/Pittsburg possibility I mentioned above.
Of course, it's not a sure thing that we'd get in at 10-6, but I think we would if the wins come from our remaining AFC games.
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Cinci's remaining schedule:
Baltimore - win
@ Pitt - loss
Cleveland - win
@ Detroit - win
Buffalo - win
@ KC - loss
That's 11-5
Pitt's remaining schedule
@ Indy - loss
Cinci - win
Chicago - loss
@ Minny - win
@ Cleveland - win
Detroit - win
That's also 11-5.
Unfortunately for us, Pitt, Cinci, and Jax all have very easy remaining schedules...