ChiefsPlanet - View Single Post - For all of you that don't think Autism is related to Vaccines

Lurker2:-)=) · 04-10-2008, 06:09 PM

Here's an analysis of the CDC study on autism rates that I did back in 2006 for another list. BTW, the 2007 numbers were even higher than 2006's were :-(

From this article on this study, the researchers measured children
who were 8 years old in 2002, so these were children who likely were born in 1994,
and who had a meidal or school diagnosis of "autism", meaning autism spectrum disorder. The researchers used age 8 because most children should have received their diagnosis by then, and usually do not change their diagnosis label after that age.
The study admits that in at least one state (Alabama), the
researchers didn't have enough access to special education records to be sure they got
all the kids, but included that state (which had the lowest numbers by far)
in creating the "average" of one in 150 children having autism.

So, from this study, the birth rate for children with autism was
apparently at least 1 in 150 births in 1994. This is WAY higher than ANY previous
predictions for that year. I think that it's only been the last year or so,
in 2004 or 2005, that SOME people have been predicting the rate for autism
was even close to 1 in 150, and now this study says the rate was AT LEAST
that, 10 years earlier in 1994.

The number of new children diagnosed with autism has risen each and
every year since then. I would "guess-timate" that the rate for children being
born this year will be more than 1 in one hundred (1%) easily.

Let's look at this new rate in comparison with some of the
California rates. I'm taking these numbers from the "Autism Spectrum Disorders: Changes
in the California Caseload: An Update 1999 through 2002http://www.dds.ca.gov/autism/pdf/AutismReport2003.pdf
(If you haven't looked at one of these reports, you should, so that you can
see how many different factors these reports take into account in making
their caseload numbers, and how those numbers break down.)

California's statistics look at ALL persons in California's database three
years of age and older, with the medical diagnosis of autism. There were
10,360 kids and adults in December 1998. (This would be the second year
where the data includes the children born in 1994). Now, these numbers do
NOT include children with a dx of PDD or Asperger's in the CA database, ONLY
autism. The researchers in the CDC study DID include PDD and "educational
autism" so the eligible children counted for 1998 in CA, are fewer than the
eligible children the latest researchers counted. I am comparing the
increasing proportions, so this is ONLY "guess-timates", but it's a way for
me to put this into perspective. :-)

In December 2002, California counted (with their same criteria, adding in
new cases) 20,377 kids three years old and older with autism, a 97% increase
over 4 years. Almost all of the additional 10,017 children added in those
four years were the new 3 to 5 year olds, as well as the now 6-year-olds who
were the then-uncounted 2-year-olds in 1998, and so were included in the 6
to age level as well. So the number of children born with autism continues
to increase each year, entering the system in CA at age 3 or older. It can
take several years for a child to get the "official" diagnosis of DSM-IV
autism, rather than PDD or another diagnosis that doesn't "qualify" the
child for inclusion in the autism numbers until later than 3 to 5 years of
age. Remember that, too, when you look at the 2006 numbers - they will be
adding kids to last year's numbers for a couple years yet, as they "update
the database".

Data released in 2006's California Autism report (Schafer Autism Report:&#65279)included a chart comparing the 2002 numbers with 2006 numbers, and breaking the numbers down by age.

* = % OF WHOLE FOR THAT YEAR ** = % INCREASE OVER FOUR YEARS

INCREASE FROM DECEMBER 2002 TO DECEMBER 2006

3-5 year olds 4039 *(20%) 3-5 year olds 6348 (19%) ** 36%
6-9 year olds 5884 (29%) 6-9 year olds 8782 (27%) 33%
10-13 year olds 3733 (18%) 10-13 year olds 6312 (19%) 41%
14-17 year olds 1825 (9%) 14-17 year olds 4108 (13%) 56%
18-21 year olds 1118 (5%) 18-21 year olds 2102 (6%) 47%
22 to 62 & older 3762 (18%) 22 to 62 & older 5125 (16%) 27%
TOTAL: 20,377 TOTAL: 32,809

The children born in 1994 (when the rate was 1 in 150 according to the new
study) and who were 8 years old in 2002 were included in the 5884 children
in the 2002 category of six-to-nine-year-olds.
These children would be part of the 6312 children in the 10 to 13 year old
group in 2006.

If the proportion of CA children with DSM-IV autism remains the same
to the total number of US children with the wider diagnosis categories counted by
the latest researchers (and that's a BIG "if") then the birthrate for
children with autism has gone up significantly every year. There was a 20%
increase in 3-5 year olds in 1998 over 1997 alone, and 1997 was the year
that those children born in 1994 (when the rate now estimated at 1 in 150
occurred) entered the system.

If the rate for children being born with autism SPECTRUM disorder back in 1994 was truly AT LEAST 1 in 150, and we've increased the percentage every year, we are talking catastrophic rates for 2006.

The sad fact is, though, that these CDC numbers are the best and most accurate
ones that researchers have been able to come up with to date. And they may even
be lower than reality...

04-10-2008, 06:09 PM	#94
Lurker2:-)=) Starter Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: heart of Lambsland Casino cash: $10004900	Here's an analysis of the CDC study on autism rates that I did back in 2006 for another list. BTW, the 2007 numbers were even higher than 2006's were :-( From this article on this study, the researchers measured children who were 8 years old in 2002, so these were children who likely were born in 1994, and who had a meidal or school diagnosis of "autism", meaning autism spectrum disorder. The researchers used age 8 because most children should have received their diagnosis by then, and usually do not change their diagnosis label after that age. The study admits that in at least one state (Alabama), the researchers didn't have enough access to special education records to be sure they got all the kids, but included that state (which had the lowest numbers by far) in creating the "average" of one in 150 children having autism. So, from this study, the birth rate for children with autism was apparently at least 1 in 150 births in 1994. This is WAY higher than ANY previous predictions for that year. I think that it's only been the last year or so, in 2004 or 2005, that SOME people have been predicting the rate for autism was even close to 1 in 150, and now this study says the rate was AT LEAST that, 10 years earlier in 1994. The number of new children diagnosed with autism has risen each and every year since then. I would "guess-timate" that the rate for children being born this year will be more than 1 in one hundred (1%) easily. Let's look at this new rate in comparison with some of the California rates. I'm taking these numbers from the "Autism Spectrum Disorders: Changes in the California Caseload: An Update 1999 through 2002http://www.dds.ca.gov/autism/pdf/AutismReport2003.pdf (If you haven't looked at one of these reports, you should, so that you can see how many different factors these reports take into account in making their caseload numbers, and how those numbers break down.) California's statistics look at ALL persons in California's database three years of age and older, with the medical diagnosis of autism. There were 10,360 kids and adults in December 1998. (This would be the second year where the data includes the children born in 1994). Now, these numbers do NOT include children with a dx of PDD or Asperger's in the CA database, ONLY autism. The researchers in the CDC study DID include PDD and "educational autism" so the eligible children counted for 1998 in CA, are fewer than the eligible children the latest researchers counted. I am comparing the increasing proportions, so this is ONLY "guess-timates", but it's a way for me to put this into perspective. :-) In December 2002, California counted (with their same criteria, adding in new cases) 20,377 kids three years old and older with autism, a 97% increase over 4 years. Almost all of the additional 10,017 children added in those four years were the new 3 to 5 year olds, as well as the now 6-year-olds who were the then-uncounted 2-year-olds in 1998, and so were included in the 6 to age level as well. So the number of children born with autism continues to increase each year, entering the system in CA at age 3 or older. It can take several years for a child to get the "official" diagnosis of DSM-IV autism, rather than PDD or another diagnosis that doesn't "qualify" the child for inclusion in the autism numbers until later than 3 to 5 years of age. Remember that, too, when you look at the 2006 numbers - they will be adding kids to last year's numbers for a couple years yet, as they "update the database". Data released in 2006's California Autism report (Schafer Autism Report:&#65279)included a chart comparing the 2002 numbers with 2006 numbers, and breaking the numbers down by age. * = % OF WHOLE FOR THAT YEAR ** = % INCREASE OVER FOUR YEARS INCREASE FROM DECEMBER 2002 TO DECEMBER 2006 3-5 year olds 4039 (20%) 3-5 year olds 6348 (19%) * 36% 6-9 year olds 5884 (29%) 6-9 year olds 8782 (27%) 33% 10-13 year olds 3733 (18%) 10-13 year olds 6312 (19%) 41% 14-17 year olds 1825 (9%) 14-17 year olds 4108 (13%) 56% 18-21 year olds 1118 (5%) 18-21 year olds 2102 (6%) 47% 22 to 62 & older 3762 (18%) 22 to 62 & older 5125 (16%) 27% TOTAL: 20,377 TOTAL: 32,809 The children born in 1994 (when the rate was 1 in 150 according to the new study) and who were 8 years old in 2002 were included in the 5884 children in the 2002 category of six-to-nine-year-olds. These children would be part of the 6312 children in the 10 to 13 year old group in 2006. If the proportion of CA children with DSM-IV autism remains the same to the total number of US children with the wider diagnosis categories counted by the latest researchers (and that's a BIG "if") then the birthrate for children with autism has gone up significantly every year. There was a 20% increase in 3-5 year olds in 1998 over 1997 alone, and 1997 was the year that those children born in 1994 (when the rate now estimated at 1 in 150 occurred) entered the system. If the rate for children being born with autism SPECTRUM disorder back in 1994 was truly AT LEAST 1 in 150, and we've increased the percentage every year, we are talking catastrophic rates for 2006. The sad fact is, though, that these CDC numbers are the best and most accurate ones that researchers have been able to come up with to date. And they may even be lower than reality...
Posts: 49