Quote:
Originally Posted by Chiefnj2
Mecca, was it ourlads or some other service that did the QB analysis and came up with # of starts and completion % as being the two most important attributes in forecasting success in the NFL?
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It's actually something they took from a thing called the Lewin projection system,The idea is hinged on the assumption that with sufficient game film, scouts can accurately determine weather or not a player has the capacity to be an early round pick. So games started becomes a big factor. Players who start relatively few games tend to have their stock skewed upwards because the scouts haven't seen as much on them, so they get sold on "Upside". This along with completion percentage goes into the projection.
The result is a system that accurately predicted that Peyton Manning would be great, and that Ryan Leaf would be a failure. It's been pretty accurate for the most part.
If you pull up freshman and sophomore stats Stafford's are pretty right in line with Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer.