http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn...c.php?t=452945
First-round QBs aren't worth the risk
Posted: September 2, 2008
The benchings of quarterbacks Alex Smith and Matt Leinart are the most recent evidence of a point I've been making for years.
When drafting a quarterback in Round 1, proceed at your own peril. History tells us that it's a coin-flip proposition, at best. And given the big money that quarterbacks taken in round one get paid, putting millions at risk might not be a prudent gamble.
Of the 10 drafts from 1997 through 2006, 14 of 27 first-round quarterbacks were clear busts. As to several others (Chad Pennington, Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Jay Cutler), reasonable minds could differ and/or the jury is still out.
This leaves only five clear-cut franchise quarterbacks from ten drafts: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger. (Cutler will likely join that group this year.)
In contrast, franchise quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, David Garrard, Tony Romo, Marc Bulger, and Matt Hasselbeck weren't picked in Round 1.
Still, the lure of landing that franchise quarterback via the first round is strong. Strong enough to get teams like the
San Francisco 49ers to make Smith the No. 1 overall pick in 2005, and for the
Arizona Cardinals to take Leinart at No. 10 a year later.
Part of the problem is that non-football decisions often influence the process. Does anyone really think the Falcons' football people wanted to pick Matt Ryan third overall? That decision reeks of an ownership move aimed at erasing the memories of Michael Vick.
As a result of the imperfect nature of the draft, plenty of guys not taken high in the process have climbed the ladder to become starting quarterbacks. Indeed, 10 of the current 32 starters were drafted either after round five or not drafted at all. (The AFC has no undrafted quarterbacks who are starters, which might explain why the AFC is generally viewed as the better conference.)
This leaves only 14 first-round picks as starters, with rookie Joe Flacco recently getting the nod in Baltimore. Contributing to this dynamic is the amount of attention and pressure that lands on a first-round quarterback. The fans want to see what the kid can do, and the media will echo that sentiment by constantly clamoring for him to get onto the field. If/when the losses pile up, the coaching staff will feel compelled to comply.
But the player no longer gets five years to figure things out. Nearly four decades ago, Terry Bradshaw of the Steelers, the No. 1 overall pick in 1970, was able to sputter and spurt for several seasons until the proverbial light finally began to flicker. Today, Bradshaw would have been replacing spark plugs in Shreveport if he hadn't become a superstar by the end of year three.
The better approach, then, seems to be taking a quarterback later in the draft, allowing him to develop quietly and without scrutiny, and hoping that he'll become the next Tom Brady, Tony Romo or Kurt Warner.
Or even the next Brett Favre. Though the Packers once upon a time gave up a first-round pick to obtain his rights from the Falcons, Favre was taken in Round 2, one spot ahead of Browning Nagle.
If you're trying to remember who Browning Nagle is, then you should be agreeing with the overriding theory here --
the draft is a crapshoot, and it doesn't make sense to stake more than $50 million on what is in essence a game of poker in which the last card won't be turned for at least a couple of years.