Quote:
Originally Posted by Zouk
Since 2000, only 4 of the 10 picks have worked out. If you go back to 1998, you get 6 out of 15. Those are bad percentages.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zouk
I wish people would analyze this without going back to the 1970's. Everything is different nowadays - more teams, QBs leave school early, better athletes on defense, etc. etc. The track record is a less than 50% chance of success in the last 10 years. Fact.
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The percentages are a lot less for QBs outside of the top 5 and outside of round 1.
Going back to 1995 here are the QBs drafted by round. Calculate the percentage of finding a franchise QB.
top 5
Vince Young
Alex Smith
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Carson Palmer
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Mike Vick
Tim Couch
Donovan McNabb
Akili Smith
Peyton Manning
Ryan Leaf
Steve McNair
Kerry Collins
round 1
Matt Leinart
Jay Cutler
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Ben Roethlisberger
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
Patrick Ramsey
Chad Pennington
Daunte Culpepper
Cade McNown
Jim Druckenmiller
round 2
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson
Drew Brees
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasosopo
Shaun King
Charlie Batch
Jake Plummer
Tony Banks
Todd Collins
Kordell Stewart
round 3
Charlie Whitehurst
Brodie Croyle
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
David Greene
Matt Schaub
Dave Ragone
Josh McCown
Chris Simms
Giovanni Carmazzi
Chris Redman
Brock Huard
Jonathan Quinn
Brian Griese
Bobby Hoying
Stoney Case
Eric Zeier
round 4
Kyle Orton
Stefan LeFors
Luke McCown
Seneca Wallace
David Garrard
Rohan Davey
Chris Weinke
Sage Rosenfels
Jesse Palmer
Joe Germaine
Aaron Brooks
Danny Wuerffel
Pat Barnes
Jeff Lewis
Danny Kanell
Rob Johnson
Chad May
Dave Barr
Steve Stenstrom
round 5
Ingle Martin
Omar Jacobs
Dan Orlovsky
Adrian McPherson
Craig Krenzel
Brian St. Pierre
Randy Fasani
Kurt Kittner
Brandon Doman
Craig Nall
Mike McMahon
AJ Feely
Tee Martin
Kevin Daft
Jay Barker
round 6
Bruce Gradkowski
Derek Anderson
Andy Hall
Josh Harris
Jim sorgi
Jeff Smoker
Drew Henson
Brooks Bollinger
Kliff Kingsbury
JT O'Sullivan
Josh Booty
Josh Heupel
Marc Bulger
Spergon Wynn
Tom Brady
Todd Husak
Matt Hasselbeck
Mike Cherry
Chuck Clements
Craig Whelihan
round 7
DJ Shockley
Matt Cassel
Ryan Fitzpatrick
John Navarre
Cody Pickett
Casey Bramlet
Matt Mauck
BJ Symons
Bradee Van Pelt
Gibran Hamdan
Ken Dorsey
Seth Burford
Jeff Kelly
Wes Pate
Tim Rattay
Jarious Jackson
Joe Hamilton
Michael Bishop
Chris Greisen
Scott Covington
Moses Moreno
Tony Graziani
Koy Detmer
Wally Richardson
Jon Stark
Kyle Wachholtz
John Walsh