Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry
1970
1. Terry Bradshaw
1971
1. Jim Plunkett
2. Archie Manning
3. Dan Pastroni
1973
2. Bert Jones
1975
1. Steve Bartkowski
1979
3. Jack Thompson
1982
4. Art Schlichter
5. Jim McMahon
1983
1. John Elway
1986
3. Jim Everett
1987
1. Vinny Testaverde
1989
1. Troy Aikman
1990
1. Jeff George
1993
1. Drew Bledsoe
2. Rick Mirer
1994
3. Heath Shuler
1995
3. Steve McNair
5. Kerry Collins
1998
1. Peyton Manning
2. Ryan Leaf
1999
1. Tim Couch
2. Donovan McNabb
3. Akill Smith
2001
1. Michael Vick
2002
1. David Carr
3. Joey Harrington
2003
1. Carson Palmer
2004
1. Eli Manning
4. Phillip Rivers
2005
1. Alex Smith
2006
3. Vince Young
2007
1. JaMarcus Russell
2008
3. Matt Ryan
Out of this group:
21 have made the Pro Bowl
12 have took teams to the Super Bowl
7 have won the Super Bowl
4 are Hall of Famers right now (Manning is for sure someothers have a good shot ie McNair, McNabb, Eli)
10 are pure busts
4 of the busts came in two drafts (1999, 2002)
1 Jeff George - no Pro Bowls but he wasnt a bust really, he played good with other teams, so he is in his own category
(Vince Young, JaMarcus Russell and Matt Ryan jury is still out - Young did have a Pro Bowl though)
Jim Plunkett never made a Pro Bowl but won two Super Bowls.
Just going off history you have close to a 70% you are going to get a Pro Bowl Quarterback with a top 5 pick. You have about the same percentage for a bust as Marty does for playoff wins.
|
You forgot
1970 Cleveland Browns took Mike Phipps 3rd overall
and if you include 6th and 7th overall picks
1976 jets take Richard Todd 6th overall
1979 Phil Simms. Works out very well, though if you remember, simms gets hurt and backup Jeff Hostettler takes them to super bowl victory anyway. I'm betting they win some super bowls with LT and Parcells and Belicheck if they pick simms here or not.
1981 Green Bay picked Rich Campbell sixth overall and Ronnie Lott went two picks later. Campbell was only in the league for 4 seasons, put up a whopping 3 tds,
1983 Todd Blackledge was the seventh overall pick by the chiefs , we know how that went. Bruce Matthews went two picks later.
1987 Cardinals took Kelly Stouffer sixth overall
1990 - Lions took Andre Ware seventh overall
1992 Bengals take David Klingler sixth overall
1994 Trend Dilfer taken by Tampa Bay sixth overall. He would go on to win a super bowl, but not with Tampa.
2003 Jacksonville took byron leftwich seventh.
and if you don't cut it off at 1970, in 1969 Bengals take Greg Cook 5th overall
So maybe the odds aren't quite what you were saying they were. I mean, most of the time the reason a QB goes 6 or 7 instead of top five is simply because top 5 teams don't have a need for qb.