Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief
Just as I am tired of hearing about "upside" and "potential" ..
I have no problem taking risks... but the odds are stacked HEAVILY against a junior QB succeeding... what makes either of these two any different?
With the amazing failure rate of junior QBs... I can't imagine it is just coincidence....
Take a look at a PARTIAL list.... (Big Ben had 38 starts so he is a bit of an exception) This is a list of guys that teams "gambled" on... Junior QBs are the SUCKER bet of the draft... If you still want to take that gamble.. I would advise staying away from Vegas, that town was built off bad math....
Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, Todd Marinovich, Andre Ware, Tommy Maddox, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, and Michael Vick ... Iguess you could squeeze Aaron Rodgers inthat list... but he was a JuCo transfer so I don't consider him the same as the "true" juniors...
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oh, it's absolutely not a coincidence that jr. qbs tend to bust more often than not. the issue with junior qbs is that they're often drafted by teams that suck and have to start from day one.
a while back, I did a bit of research of first round qbs relative to where they were drafted, and whether they played right off the bat or sat on the bench and learned the ropes. overwhelmingly, the guys who were eased into the lineup were those with the greatest success. you can look at almost every qb on your list, and they mostly played right off the bat.
my take is that, in a perfect world, you draft the senior qb that started 40 games, had a high completion percentage, and played in a pro style offense. this isn't a perfect world. we have stafford and sanchez, who have flashed the ability to be that franchise qb we've lacked, really, since len dawson. and unfortunately, that's what the draft is all about. picking young guys with talent and upside. luckily, we have one of the best guys in the nfl doing the picking for us now. if we draft a qb at number three overall, I have all the confidence in the world that pioli will put him in the position to succeed.