Originally Posted by Just Passin' By
If I may play devil's advocate while using logic, here are the first round QBs this decade:
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
JaMarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Vince Young
Matt Leinhart
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell
Eli Manning
Phillip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J.P. Losman
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Michael Vick
That's 22 quarterbacks.
Busts, as of now: Ramsey, Harrington, Carr, Grossman, Boller, Losman, Smith, Young, Russell, Leinhart
That's 10 of the QBs taken in that time becoming complete busts to this point. And the other 12 aren't all great (so far), by any means. Brady Quinn, Jason Campbell, Byron Leftwich, Michael Vick?
Even being generous with the term, you've got Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler that turned into "studs" at the position. So, even being generous with the term, you've got just over a 33% success rate picking first round QBs this decade, and that's not even taking the underclassman factor into account.
As for the idea of a "top 5" argument, notable failures (to date) include JaMarcus Russell, Michael Vick, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Alex Smith and Vince Young. In Fact, when you factor in those quarterbacks who succeeded (to date) after being taken in the top 5 (Ryan, Manning, Rivers, Palmer), there's a less than 50% success rate for quarterbacks taken in the top 5 this decade.
Given the above information, when the only other option being put forward is a junior quarterback, it's not as if there's no wisdom in saying "No, thanks. I'll take the left tackle.".
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