This just in from KC Crow, a very reputable poster from across the hall.
Use as you will:
Quote:
I've done some research for ya'll...
I have considered all QBs taken in the first 32 picks since 1990 (For consistency).
Pro Bowl selections were used as the criteria for "success" (in alignment with the stated study and for consistency even though I may not agree with this method).
Here is the data through the 2008 draft:
Of those, 15 were underclassmen and 28 were seniors for a total of 43 QBs.
Of the 15 underclassmen, 5 have been selected to the ProBowl (33%).
Of the 28 seniors, 10 have been selected to the ProBowl (36%).
Of all QBs (43), 15 have been selected to the ProBowl (35%).
Conclusion... Being an underclassmen doesn't mean you will be more or less successful in the NFL than a senior!
Here is teh data through the 2006 draft (to eliminate the "time will tell" players)
Of those, 14 were underclassmen and 26 were seniors for a total of 40 QBs.
Of the 14 underclassmen, 5 have been selected to the ProBowl (36%).
Of the 26 seniors, 10 have been selected to the ProBowl (38%).
Of all QBs (40), 15 have been selected to the ProBowl (38%).
Conclusion... It still doesn't matter!
Here is the data set:
Year - Pick - Underclassmen/Senior - Name - Pro Bowls - Success/Failure
1990 - 1 - U - Jeff George - 0 - F
1990 - 7 - U - Andre Ware - 0 - F
1991 - 16 - S - Dan McGwire - 0 - F
1991 - 24 - U - Todd Marinovich - 0 - F
1992 - 6 - S - David Klingler - 0 - F
1992 - 25 - U - Tommy Maddox - 0 - F
1993 - 1 - U - Drew Bledsoe - 4 - S
1993 - 2 - S - Rick Mirer - 0 - F
1994 - 3 - U - Heath Shuler - 0 - F
1994 - 6 - U - Trent Dilfer - 1 - S
1995 - 3 - S - Steve McNair - 1 - S
1995 - 5 - S - Kerry Collins - 2 - S
1997 - 26 - S - Jim Druckenmiller - 0 - F
1998 - 1 - S - Peyton Manning - 10 - S
1998 - 2 - U - Ryan Leaf - 0 - F
1999 - 1 - U - Tim Couch - 0 - F
1999 - 2 - S - Donovan McNabb - 4 - S
1999 - 3 - S - Akili Smith - 0 - F
1999 - 11 - S - Daunte Culpepper - 3 - S
1999 - 12 - S - Cade McNown - 0 - F
2000 - 18 - S - Chad Pennington - 0 - F
2001 - 1 - U - Michael Vick - 4 - S
2001 - 32 - S - Drew Brees - 4 - S
2002 - 1 - S - David Carr - 0 - F
2002 - 3 - S - Joey Harrington - 0 - F
2002 - 32 - S - Patrick Ramsey - 0 - F
2003 - 1 - S - Carson Palmer - 1 - S
2003 - 7 - S - Byron Leftwich - 0 - F
2003 - 19 - S - Kyle Boller - 0 - F
2003 - 22 - U - Rex Grossman - 0 - F
2004 - 1 - S - Eli Manning - 1 - S
2004 - 4 - S - Philip Rivers - 1 - S
2004 - 11 - U - Ben Roethlisberger - 1 - S
2004 - 22 - S - J.P. Losman - 0 - F
2005 - 1 - U - Alex Smith - 0 - F
2005 - 24 - S - Aaron Rodgers - 0 - F
2005 - 25 - S - Jason Campbell - 0 - F
2006 - 3 - U - Vince Young - 1 - S
2006 - 10 - S - Matt Leinart - 0 - F
2006 - 11 - S - Jay Cutler - 1 - S
2007 - 1 - U - JaMarcus Russel - 0 - F
2008 - 3 - S - Matt Ryan - 0 - F
2008 - 18 - S - Joe Flacco - 0 - F
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