Quote:
Originally Posted by doomy3
Michael Vick Virginia Tech 2001
Rex Grossman Florida 2003
Ben Roethlisberger Miami (Ohio) 2004
Aaron Rodgers California 2005
Alex Smith Utah 2005
Vince Young Texas 2006
JaMarcus Russell LSU 2007
Well these are all first rounders, so there have been 7 actually since 1998. I would say that all but Ben and Rodgers have been pretty underwhelming, and the jury is still out on Russell.
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You're making a very reductive argument here.
So, yes, at first glance one can say only Roethlisberger and Rogers are looking like strong selections. But let's factor in other elements, like the biggest one: what type of offense were these players running in college?
I'm sorry, anyone who couldn't see that Vince Young was going to be a ****ing disaster was a complete idiot, even more than Young himself with his 6 Wonderlic.
You can't just look at this list and say, "Yep. 33% change of success."
But even if you did do that type of half-ass analysis, 33% chance of landing a franchise QB is pretty damn good.