Quote:
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud
No, I don't.
DeMarcus Ware & Merriman were both #12 overall. Suggs was #10. There is relative value to my expectation.
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Tom Brady was the 199th pick overall. I therefore expect that the 199th pick overall to be a future Hall of Fame player. I have relative value to my expectation.
see -- it doesn't work. I know a one time thing is a statistical anomaly, whereas you have listed 3 good examples for your position. Heck, Dwight Freeney would be a 4th example. But still, you can't value picks based on the best possible outcome. You have to discount it for risk of a bad pick for whatever reason.