[jtfris]

Thoughts on the Chiefs Draft:

Forgive me if this all seems like common sense to you, but I wanted to logically lay out why I think the Chiefs will be the most exciting team to watch on draft day this year. You are free to skip to the bottom of the post to see the likely trade partners:

Given the history of Scott Pioli I believe the Chiefs are trying everything in their power to trade down. Pioli likes to have “Patriot-Type” players and enough of them to create good competition and depth at every position on the field. I believe Haley feels the same way. Haley will likely focus more on offense than Pioli who will focus on Defense first. Aside from that minor difference, I believe both of them are focused on acquiring the best of these types of players.

There are three paths to acquiring more of these “Patriot-Type” players, drafting or signing rookies, signing veteran free agents, or making trades. The Chiefs have traded for veteran Matt Cassell and may trade for more, but I believe are unlikely to do so prior to the draft because there are not any “Patriot-Type” first tier players on the block. There are not any first tier “Patriot-Type” free agents available either. Therefore, the Chiefs must acquire as many of these players as possible through the draft.

Regardless of the value of the players acquired in the draft, I believe the Chiefs will want these younger players over econd tier “Patriot-Type” players. Second tier players can be acquired after the draft to fill the holes that are left over.

Given the restrictions listed above, to acquire as many “Patriot-Type” players as possible the Chiefs must acquire as many draft picks as possible. More picks can only be acquired by trading down, trading veterans or trading future draft choices. The Chiefs are building for the long haul, therefore, I don’t believe they will trade away many future draft choices.

This leaves trading down or trading veterans as the avenues to more choices. The Chiefs have a few veterans with significant trade value (3rd round or above): Brian Watters, Tony Gonzalez, Tyler Thigpen maybe, Larry Johnson maybe. There are a few other that might be traded for some late round picks such as Brody Croyle. I believe the Chiefs will use two criteria (other than the obvious value of the pick they would receive) to decide whether to trade or keep these veterans. The length of time they believe a player has left in the league and more importantly whether they believe he is a “Patriot-type” player.

Brian Watters obviously has not impressed the Chiefs as a “Patriot-type” player since Haley arrived, but he has a good body of work. However, coupling his run in with coach Haley with his years in the league, I believe the Chiefs will try to move him for a second (if we are lucky) or third round pick.

Tony Gonzalez is obviously an amazing talent with great leadership on the field. His recent statements about wanting to play for a contender and the value he might bring make him a serious potential trade. Balancing this against what he could provide a young team in leadership and his amazing fitness (he might play for five more years) means that the Chiefs will move him if they can get good value (Top of the 3rd to bottom of the 1st ). I know this is more than they were looking for last year, but Pioli and Haley have higher football IQ’s than Carl and Herm.

Larry Johnson may have little to no trade value given his recent stupidity. However, he does have some upside staying with the Chiefs now that he is cheaper and seems motivated to make that check. He is obviously not a “Patriots-Type” player and he may have limited years left in the league given the riding Herm gave him. Therefore I think the Chiefs keep him with the threat of cutting him unless they get offered a 3rd round pick or higher.

Tyler Thigpen has decent trade value now given what he did last year. However, that was a limited data set to work with in less than ideal conditions with the Chiefs. I believe the Chiefs think he is a “Patriots-Type” player and they like the amount of time he has left in the league, but they are not sure if he can play in their system. Unless someone offers a 3rd round pick or higher, the Chiefs will keep him to encourage competition and provide depth.

Given these four scenarios, I will bet that the Chiefs get at least two of these veterans traded and end up with two extra 3rd round picks or a second and a third if Gonzo goes. Getting back a second and getting another 3rd are nice, but they don’t add up to picking in the lower first round (I don’t think the Chiefs will trade up given all the needs they have).

This leaves trading down as the only other avenue to acquire picks on draft day. When you look at which picks the Chiefs have been interviewing and had in for visits it leads you to believe they think they will be picking later in the first or in the second. Combine this with the history of the Patriots trying to acquire more picks for all the reasons stated above and I believe the Chiefs will trade down.

The attached draft value chart has been floating around the net for a couple of years and I believe reflects more accurately the value of the top picks. Add to that that I don’t believe that Pioli will ask for full value and I believe that the Chiefs will trade down for something less than the stated value of even this chart. This means that the Chiefs would accept a combination of picks and players that are close to the 2200 point value of their 3rd overall pick.

Which teams would want that pick? I believe there are three potential scenarios shaping up where teams would want this pick.

1. Teams that believe the tape over the workouts and want TexasTech WR Crabtree because they believe he can be truly elite as opposed to other players in this draft.
2. If Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry and Georgia QB Matthew Stafford go in the first two picks I believe there may be teams in love with one of the top tackles.
3. If Georgia QB Matthew Stafford and one other player go, I believe there may be teams willing to move up to get the USC QB Mark Sanchez.


Using the attached value chart, looking at the picks that teams have available, and understanding roughly their potential needs I believe that the following trades for the #3 overall pick are possible on draft day:

Likely Trade Scenarios:

Team Picks Point Value
Jacksonville #8, #39, #72, #107 2220
Cinci #6, #38, and #106 2202
Jacksonville #8, #39, #72 2140
Cinci #6 and #38 2120
Philly #8, #39, #53,#85, #121 2117
Philly #20, #27, #53, #85 2065
San Fran #10, #43, #74, #111 2062
Buffalo #11, #42, #75, #110 2019
Jacksonville #8, #39, #107 1990
San Fran #10, #43, #74 1990
Philly #20, #27, #53, #121 1952
Cinci #6, #70, #98 1948
Buffalo #11, #42, #75 1945
Jacksonville #8, #39 1910
Philly #20, #27, #53 1900

Notes on the likely trade scenarios:

• Teams do not like to give up half of their draft therefore it is likely that if one of the trades sending more than three picks occurred the Chiefs would have to give back some lower round picks.

• In my estimation Philly, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati may have more than a passing interest in Michael Crabtree. San Francisco and Buffalo could have their eyes on either the Sanchez or Crabtree. This by far the weakest part of my analysis so feel free to give any feedback that makes sense regarding the needs of these teams.

• Multiple trades are possible with Patriots, but the Patriots would need to include multiple second and third round picks something they are not likely to do unless a blockbuster trade with Tony Gonzalez, Brian Watters, or Tyler Thigpen Could be worked out.

• I considered Miami, Houston, and the New York Giants as potential trade partners but they did not have the picks this year to enter the bidding.

• I did not include trades that were much over the 2200 pt value of the pick because I just don’t think teams would give up that much.

• To that end I believe the most serious possibilites lie in the second half of this chart below 2000 pts. Teams might realistically add these picks to the mix.

• I also did not include the possibility of trading future picks.

• This scenario does not include the possibility of trading players to the Chiefs or including one of the players from the Chiefs to another team.

Given Pioli’s background, creativity, and lack of history with the current group of players it is likely that there will be players and future picks included at some point. Nonetheless this should give you some framework to judge the upcoming draft.

I also think it is likely that if the Chiefs can affect a trade with Jacksonville, Cinci, or San Francisco, they would move down once or twice more in the first round.