Quote:
Originally Posted by Reaper16
The numbers are definitely in the favor of 1st round QBs. When Dilfer & Johnson won, it was because their teams were built a different way -- they had dominant defenses.
The dominant defense approach can definitely work, but its also more difficult to achieve. The numbers bear out that building your team around a real franchise-type QB leads to championship success more often than does building your team around a dominant defense.
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That's only true if you massage the "franchise-type" QB definition. Neither Eli nor Dilfer is in that mold, and Big Ben is more game manager than "franchise-type" in my opinion, although he's at least arguable. The reality is that you are, of course, right. You're more likely to get lucky at any position if you draft it higher. That's just common sense, since you have a larger pool to choose from. However, the reality is that of the 3 QBs closest to the "chuck it all around" type of franchise QBs to win Super Bowls in the past 10 years, Only Peyton was a first round pick. Neither Brady nor Warner were.
Your "numbers bear out" argument doesn't actually hold up in recent years, though.