Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiefsFan5840
What am I not able to figure out a use for? I have a bachelors degree in actuarial science, I'm not exactly an idiot when it comes to numbers. I just think most of these projection system sites like AccuScore and what not are way off because of things they don't include. With more weeks left I would say they are more accurate, but still not as much as a knowledgeable fan could use without looking so much at stats and just using their general feel. With 2 games left I'd say using your own judgement on a probability we win 2 games, or win 1 game is a lot better than reading a percentage off one of these sites that are based strictly off statistics.
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Cool. If you are trying to pull math nerd-rank, I guess I could mention that I have passed the 1st 4 exams and am sitting for 5 this spring. (CAS side) Not that it really matters.
You do not need to know every variable of a complex system to attempt to make accurate forecasts. We certainly dont have every aspect of the weather figured out, but the meteorologist still does a halfway-decent job telling me what will happen the next few days. Earthquake and hurricane catastrophe models probably dont have those probabilities down anywhere close to 100% either, but we still rely on them. How? Why? We identify a few variables, try to make predictions based on our imperfect knowledge, and see how well that model would have predicted the past. (For example, we have dozens of football seasons. How well would accuscore have done in predicting Week 13 20 years ago?) When a new event makes it apparent that there is a flaw in the model (accuscore begins to lose predictive power, an earthquake with a specific magnitude, epicenter, and regional damage occurs that the model does not show as reasonably possible) you revise the model.
You'll learn more about constructing actuarial models when you sit for exam C, if you havent already.