Thursday, January 06, 2011
What Andrew Luck is Passing Up
Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck has decided to remain in school for a fourth year, and the common reaction is that he's made a very noble, but bad decision to pass up NFL millions when his stock couldn't possibly be higher.
The NFL is expected to ask for, and the NFLPA is expected grant them, a "Rookie Wage Scale" in the next collective bargaining agreement. It's one issue both sides seem to agree upon.
Now, I've written about this issue frequently over the last year. I do not feel a "rookie wage scale" is necessary, as one that limits first-year compensation for draft picks already exists and continued in an uncapped season, but I've accepted that incoming rookies
will be (needlessly) sacrificed under the guise that more guaranteed money will go towards veterans.
(Who are almost always released before the start of the regular season to avoid base salary guarantees, but I digress.)
Assuming Luck were the number one pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, what is he giving up, financially, by staying in school?
According to Green Bay Packers president and CEO Mark Murphy, under the NFL's proposal for a rookie wage scale, the first overall pick "would sign a five-year contract and receive a $5.34 million signing bonus and $1.5 million salary his rookie year, even if he does not play a single down."
Murphy adds that the player's salaries would increase from $1.7 million in year two to $2.9 million in year five. Unless that player is a quarterback, who will be required to sign a six-year contract, with the sixth-year base salary listed at $4.3 million.
That's right, a year after the St. Louis Rams signed first-round quarterback Sam Bradford to a six-year, $78 million contract, with $50 million in guaranteed money, Luck would be signing a six-year deal worth $19.94 million.
Incidentally, Luck would've received more money ($6.84M) in 2011, without playing a down, under the NFL's proposed plan than Bradford and 2010 second overall pick Ndamukong Suh received combined ($6.3M) this season.
Furthermore, the NFL wants to delay the date in which first-round contracts can be renegotiated.
Currently, the team and player and can revisit rookie contracts after two years. Under the NFL's proposal, first-round picks will have to wait until after year three. Sure, a player could hold out to get a new deal, but with less up-front money, and no option or salary advances in year two, the player has less leverage and remains under his team's control for two-to-four more seasons.