Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante84
I love your stats. You are a huge value to the board.
Can you give a brief overview of the variables you took into account?
|
I start with Brian Burke's team rankings available on his web site
http://advancednflstats.com. He has done a great deal of research to determine which statistics are most meaningful for predicting the outcomes of future games. The ones he has identified include:
Offensive and defensive net yards per passing attempt
Offensive and defensive success rate of running plays
Offensive and defensive interception rate
Offensive fumble rate
Team penalty rate
He also factors in home field advantage and strength of schedule. These yield is Generic Win Percentage which represents the percentage of games that each team would win, playing against an average team on a neutral site.
I take it from here. I simulate the season thousands of times. At the end of each simulation, I apply the playoff tiebreaker rules to determine which teams would make the playoffs and draft order. I also simulate the playoffs. I tabulate these outcomes over the thousands of simulations to give an overall prediction of outcomes of the NFL season, based on the results so far.