[Wilson8]

Below is a small part of Rany writing about Jeremy Guthrie...

http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/

There’s definitely some upside here. Guthrie’s a former first-round pick who flopped with Cleveland – but the Orioles picked him up on waivers before the 2007 season, and was one of the great waiver-wire finds of recent times, basically the healthy version of Felipe Paulino. From 2007 through 2011, Guthrie averaged 31 starts and 197 innings a season, with a 4.12 ERA, pitching nearly half his games against the four giants of the AL East. Last winter, I had him on my list of possible acquisition targets for the Royals, albeit at the bottom of my preferences, given his age (33) and the fact that he was under contract for just 2012.

But I didn’t expect him to fall apart like he has, and unlike Sanchez, there is an extenuating circumstance here that at least gives you a little hope he can turn things around. Coors Field – when it’s playing like Coors Field – can turn even star pitchers into mincemeat. Darryl Kile had finished 5th in the Cy Young vote in 1997, having thrown 256 innings for the Houston Astros with a 2.57 ERA. He signed a free-agent contract with the Rockies, and was beyond awful. In 1998, he had a 5.20 ERA and led the NL with 17 losses; in 1999, he was much worse, finishing with a 6.61 ERA and leading the league in earned runs allowed. At the time, his collapse was so profound that it didn’t look like it was simply a Coors Field effect – in 1999, he walked 109 batters and struck out 116, which is untenable.


But the Cardinals correctly surmised that if they could just get him away from that ballpark – and work with Dave Duncan, I’m sure – he would be fine. They traded four nobodies for Kile after the 1999 season; in 2000, he threw 232 innings with a 3.91 ERA, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio improved to 192-to-58 – MORE THAN TRIPLE his ratio the year before. He was even better in 2001, and was pitching well in 2002 when he tragically died of a heart attack.


Jeremy Guthrie is no Darryl Kile. But it’s not unreasonable to think there’s a chance that he can be Jeremy Guthrie again, and Jeremy Guthrie was a solid starting pitcher. Jonathan Sanchez is not.