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To develop an objective formua to assess which QBs are likely to thrive or fail at the NFL level is challenging.
The first challenge is to quantify a rating for each player in the pros. Phillip Rivers would have been rated higher 2 years ago than he is now. Daute Culpepper would have had a high rating his first couple years, but probably should be considered a bust. NFL QB rating doesn't cover it all. I consider QB outcomes to be binary (is he a franchise QB, yes or no) while others might prefer a more nuanced approach. For example if you look at a binary outcome, I would assign Chad Pennington a 0, but someone else might think he was worth a first round pick because he played OK for a couple of seasons before injuries and his obvious physical limitations caught up with him.
The second challenge is to gather all of the college level data that you want to throw into the formula. This could take hours, especially if you want to do things like include the strength of their competition.
Once all that is done, you can start the data analysis and probably account for a large part of the variance. It won't be perfect. Even with the best model you are going have some variance that isn't accounted for. My guess is that the ESPN model probably gets you 70 to 90% of what is possible in terms of accounting for the variance.
Right now I'm too busy at work to spend meaningful time on Sandbox, so I can't make time for something like this, as interesting as it would be.
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