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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
I read it. I'm a big fan of statistical analysis and the guy does some interesting things. I don't know how much stock I put in something like that, where the truly terrible guys and the elite guys are separated by such small statistical measures (5.82 yards to 5.50, etc).
I also think (generally) when crunching stats about Alex Smith, there's a failure to account for the NUMBER of attempts. If you have a QB who holds the ball and usually doesn't push it further than 10 yards downfield unless his receiver is wide, wide open, the number of attempts will obviously decrease, and the accuracy of those throws he DOES make is going to be really high.
I'll believe he can WIN games against good playoff defenses when I see it (and I mean, LEAD his team, not come along for the ride).
Smith throws fewer of the lower percentage passes, which helps both his completion percentage and his yards per attempt.
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In a game of inches. I don't have a hard time believing the margins are that small.
If every QB could throw 70% completions, don't you think they'd all do it? If the knock on Alex is that he can't throw deep, wouldn't make sense that it'd be even harder for him to be that accurate short since teams would adjust for what he does?
He does throw fewer of the lower percentage passes...but he throws less overall. As a % of his throws, the margin isn't THAT skewed. It's less..but not OMG look at that.