Originally Posted by saphojunkie
You see, the problem is that you present these arguments as though they are the crafted thoughts of your own exhaustive, first-hand research.
They are not. They are you looking at a website that ranks players according to their own analysis. What's wrong with that, you ask?
I will tell you.
Player X is a 5'9, 190 lb cornerback who was playing in a cover-2 zone scheme where he relied on safety help over the top. His particular coaches always kept him on the right side of the field. Other teams would line up their largest receivers on him to create a height mismatch. Meanwhile, it was recognized on film that the safety assigned with helping him would bite at least one step on play-action. Not enough to take him completely out of the play, but enough to get him a step out of position. Player X is a good player. He is coachable. He didn't press the receiver, because his coaches don't believe in gambling. They wanted him to contain the big play so as not to put pressure on his game manager QB.
Player Y is 6'1, 210 pounds, and he is not coachable. He doesn't listen to his DC who tells him they'd rather give up an 8 yard gain and live to fight another day than get beat over the top. His safety is extremely smart and extremely disciplined. His safety is constantly diagnosing plays and calling them out before they even happen. This gives Player Y the confidence to jump routes, which he does often. He knows that he will either get the interception or his safety will be behind him for the help, which he almost always is. For this reason, they are statistically the most effective secondary duo in the league. When Player Y gets beat bad, it rarely shows up, because his safety help is there to prevent a big gain.
Now, Player X and Player Y are both unrestricted free agents. You log onto your good ol' PFF where they have Player X as giving up 8.9 YPC and Player Y giving up 6.7.
You want Player Y. You say he's better. The evidence clearly proves it.
Except... it doesn't.
The PFF guys look at that and they determine Player X is playing off the receiver and doesn't have the closing speed to defend the pass. Fine, but that's what he was told to do. And the PFF guys don't tell you they made this judgment call. You aren't privy to that individual, play-by-play analysis.
In fact, there IS no individual, play-by-play analysis. Because guess what? In order to do that, you need a crew of guys working almost around the clock for every single team.
You know what that's called? Position coaches.
Five guys on a website do not analyze 64 starting cornerbacks with the insight and accuracy that 64 guys (call it two coaches per team) will.
And the fact is, when dealing with free agents, you cannot compare them to the entire league. You have to compare them to only the OTHER AVAILABLE PLAYERS. (this argument is a little moving-the-goalposts, but I still think it's worth mentioning).
This is why I don't just blindly look at statistical analysis from a fan-run website and call it gospel.
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