[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Ultimately I think I agree - if McClusters his first read there, the ball has to come out right at the break. Sorry Dex - dem's the breaks, kid; it's the NFL. That said, if you're going to throw a ball into that maelstrom that close to end-zone, you have to realize that if he gets hit hard enough or the defender is a half a heartbeat faster than you expected, that becomes a jump ball with a bunch of defenders nearby.

In the end, I think throw or hold, either argument is defensible even if McCluster is the first read. 50 clearly keyed on him and a smart QB doesn't go full Cassel there and get his WR murdered unless we're talking game on the line time. Even in a regular season game, is it really a good idea to unload that ball on first down in the first quarter? Man - I don't think it's that clear cut. The ball would've had to come in hot because of the small window and McCluster's not exactly known for taking hits well or holding onto the ball.

After he clears 50's outside shoulder and he's in pursuit, I think you have a legit beef; Smith probably needs to have the stones to try that flip (and no, it wouldn't be across his body - he'd have to lead McCluster). But right at the break? There's a hell of a lot of harm that could come from that and it's just as likely as the good, IMO. I don't think you can criticize him too harshly for not taking that shot there.

I've told the story a few times about the guy I talked to that knew Donald Washington and listened to him tell stories about Bowe. Bowe was done giving himself up for Matt Cassel. He was getting hung out to dry and it was effecting his effort. Winning games often goes beyond an individual play and if Smith gets Dexter detonated a few times, that's the kind of thing that can linger well beyond a single drive. Like I said, if it's the game on the line you throw it anyway, but a good QB and good team leader also knows when discretion is the better part of valor.

You make a lot of solid points in that post. Rep.