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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho
Are you basing that just on age or what?
He’s put up 10.3 bWAR (superior view, IMO), and 8.6 fWAR over the past two years.
Yes, he’s about to be 35. He also is a pitcher who has long succeeded with command and pitchability. Is he going to fall off a cliff to the point that he struggles to get to 3? It’s possible but I don’t see the evidence for it.
That deal was and still is crazy. He’s due $105 million for his age 35, 36, and 37 seasons (deal is up after 21). There’s a ton of risk there but also reasonable reason to see him continuing to be successful.
Even over the past 3 years, when he averaged 4 wins a season, you’re looking at a overpay. Way to go, Dave Stewart. Way to go.
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Age, velocity and quality of contact. He's giving up more hard hit balls, missing fewer bats and there is absolutely a point of no return with velocity and I believe Greinke's getting nearer and nearer to that. To his credit (I guess) he seems to recognize that and essentially pitches backwards at this point in his career. I just don't see a way for that to hold up over any appreciable period of time.
Sure, he's been worth 8ish wins over the last 2 years....he was also worth about 30% less in 2018 than he was in 2017. He was a 3.5 win pitcher last year and he's out of rope w/r/t raw stuff. I'm not saying he'll fall to 3 next season, but I'm saying he may well be sitting at 1.5-2 by the end of the deal. The 3 win average would incorporate additional slow decay from where he sat last year (a noticeable dropoff from where he was the year before).
Frankly, he's another 1 mph in velocity loss away from being a potential replacement level pitcher. You've seen the studies on the correlation between velocity and effectiveness; there's really no escaping it. As velocity wanes, performance goes with it. He is, at best, a RH junk tosser at this point and sooner or later his ability to just trick guys will be gone if they can just sit there and flick away 88 mph BP fastballs until he makes a mistake.
I
might be willing to take him on for half of what he's owed over the next 4 seasons, but even that carries with it a little bit of risk.
EDIT: You're correct; only 3 years left on the deal. Still nutty, but a little less risk and a little more palatable. Still at least 1/3 higher than I'd be comfortable taking on, though and probably worse than that.