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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch
Wrong. I've asked you to expound upon your belief with evidence. I don't think I've seen you back that up yet.
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It's my opinion that it's a superior view for pitchers. I think Fangraphs' pitcher WAR relies far too much on FIP and has a tendency/weakness in that it can overly value the WAR of pitchers who strike out a lot of hitters and have good K:BB ratios but don't have great actual results.
I would need to be able to take the actual formula they use to calculate pitcher WAR to be able to expound on it more than finding examples (like Wade Davis as a starter in 2013 as an off-the-top-of-head example) of starters struggling who have strong WARs because their FIP is good.
I don't think they've shared that secret sauce just yet.
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut
Age, velocity and quality of contact. He's giving up more hard hit balls, missing fewer bats and there is absolutely a point of no return with velocity and I believe Greinke's getting nearer and nearer to that. To his credit (I guess) he seems to recognize that and essentially pitches backwards at this point in his career. I just don't see a way for that to hold up over any appreciable period of time.
Sure, he's been worth 8ish wins over the last 2 years....he was also worth about 30% less in 2018 than he was in 2017. He was a 3.5 win pitcher last year and he's out of rope w/r/t raw stuff. I'm not saying he'll fall to 3 next season, but I'm saying he may well be sitting at 1.5-2 by the end of the deal. The 3 win average would incorporate additional slow decay from where he sat last year (a noticeable dropoff from where he was the year before).
Frankly, he's another 1 mph in velocity loss away from being a potential replacement level pitcher. You've seen the studies on the correlation between velocity and effectiveness; there's really no escaping it. As velocity wanes, performance goes with it. He is, at best, a RH junk tosser at this point and sooner or later his ability to just trick guys will be gone if they can just sit there and flick away 88 mph BP fastballs until he makes a mistake.
I might be willing to take him on for half of what he's owed over the next 4 seasons, but even that carries with it a little bit of risk.
EDIT: You're correct; only 3 years left on the deal. Still nutty, but a little less risk and a little more palatable. Still at least 1/3 higher than I'd be comfortable taking on, though and probably worse than that.
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The $35 million/year is more than I realized when I responded to you. Dave Stewart :shakes head:
If you're talking fWAR, yeah, 9-10 over the next 3 years is probably about where he'll land. I'd see him more around 11-12 in rWAR, which is what I "think" in. And I don't think it's a stretch to see that over the next 3 year in fWAR, either, considering Kyle Hendricks averaged 3.4 fWAR/year over the past 3 years with even less velocity and less in his bag of tricks.
Losing velocity hurts most guys when it goes away for good. Greinke is one of the few with the arsenal and command to compensate (if it did actually go away for good), in my opinion.
To pull it back to the original context, though, it wouldn't take Schwarber and Russell to pry him away from Arizona, so I was way off base there.