Quote:
Originally Posted by kccrow
Running through my head the math...
Historically, the probability of a team scoring is about equivalent to the yards from its own endzone they begin their possession at. So, starting from the 25 yields a score 25% of the time. I feel like that trend is changing slightly and may be higher, but I haven't looked at it in a few years now.
Both the Bills and Chiefs were in the upper echelon of the NFL and had a 2:1 TD to FG ratio. So, based on above there should be about a 17% chance that either team scores a TD when starting from their own 25.
Now, if the onside kick fails then it's likely the other team will start at approximately the opponent 45, which changes the likelihood of scoring to 55% and the likelihood of a TD to about 37%
So, tradeoffs... If you have a 15% chance of winning the onside kick and 45% chance of scoring thereafter, then you're at about a 7% win probability versus a 37% chance of losing the game if it fails, it seems better to not do it. You hedge your bets that you have an 83% the other team doesn't score a TD.
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The slight variation on the calculation is that SURPRISE onside kicks tend to have a much better chance of success. I'm not sure what the actual percent is, but I believe it's in the 30-40% range. But still, it's pretty risky even if you modify it based on that figure.