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Actually, it's fairly accurate. Almost all sites have a flash degrading method which usually degrades to H264. The entire YouTube app goes this route. Porn sites have this method.
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The burden of proof is on you and Jobs... the FACT is... he is LYING... the MAJORITY of sites do NOT support html5 ... man up and make a bet with me and I'll prove it. I'll even take the bet 5 months from now (I would say 6 but we have been arguing this point for a month already)