During the run up to the 2017 NFL Draft, I heard several of my colleagues suggest that teams in need of a franchise quarterback should consider bypassing the top prospects in a "weak" quarterback class this year and focus on landing one of the crown jewels from a so-called "loaded" 2018 quarterback class.
While I thought such conversation dismissed the talent and potential of the likes of Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and others at the position, I had heard so much about the next wave at the position that I couldn't wait to take a peek at the group when the draft concluded.
In fact, I was so excited about evaluating the next generation of field generals that I popped in some tape over the weekend to get a feel for this collection of quarterbacks that I had heard so much about throughout the offseason. After spending the weekend looking at the top prospects at the position, I would tell anyone within earshot to pump the brakes on the hype train that's making this collection of quarterbacks out to be game-changers at the position.
Now, that's not a complete dismissal of the long-term potential of the quarterback prospects in the upcoming class, but I believe the same questions and concerns that plagued the 2017 group can be applied to those who could be in the 2018 class. Whether it's concerns about their transition from a spread offense to a pro-style scheme or their overall experience and game-management abilities, the top prospects at the position have just as many warts on their respective games as their predecessors. There isn't a sure-fire franchise quarterback in the group and any suggestion otherwise is based on hype, not evaluation.
For instance, USC's Sam Darnold has been touted as the consensus choice as the top quarterback prospect heading into the fall. Observers have suggested that he has the best combination of size, arm talent, athleticism and intangibles that we've seen at the position in years. While the 6-foot-4, 225-pound playmaker certainly posted impressive production and flashed outstanding potential during his 10-game run last season as the team's starting quarterback, he isn't quite a polished passer who's ready to take the NFL by storm.
Sure, he compiled a strong completion rate (67.2 percent) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (31:9) last season, but he played in a catch-and-fire system similar to the schemes that were run by Trubisky and Davis Webb. The Trojans' offense features a number of quicks, screens, RPOs (run-pass options) and mesh concepts (layered crossing routes) that are staples in most spread or Air Raid systems. Thus, Darnold will need time to transition to the pro game, just like his predecessors.
He will also need to refine his footwork and fundamentals to become a more efficient passer from the pocket and show better deep-ball accuracy when he pushes the ball down the field. With Darnold showing a little recklessness with the ball, it's quite possible that his interception totals will swell during his second season as a starter (see the reports of his interceptions during spring ball).
I see why scouts are excited about Darnold's potential. He's a gritty competitor with big-game moxie and he's capable of shredding opponents as an anticipatory thrower. However, he isn't the finished product that some would have you believe. Thus, we should hold off on crowning him the NFL's next great quarterback.
The same could be said for UCLA's Josh Rosen. The 6-4, 218-pound junior is everything that coaches and scouts covet in a traditional pocket passer. Rosen can make every throw in the book with pinpoint placement and accuracy while also showing a feathery touch.
As a freshman in 2015, he wowed evaluators with his ability move defenders with his eyes before throwing receivers open between the numbers. Rosen played like a savvy veteran at the position and exhibited the qualities (arm talent, accuracy, poise and sound judgement) that most desire at the position. Yet, he enters the 2017 season with concerns about his arm strength/talent following a shoulder injury that prematurely ended his sophomore season (missed the Bruins' final six games, underwent shoulder surgery in November). In addition, scouts have concerns about his prickly personality and leadership skills based on interactions with teammates and coaches during his tenure.
Considering how medical issues and character concerns can affect final draft grades, Rosen also has a lot to prove before earning a franchise quarterback label.
Wyoming's Josh Allen has been touted as the biggest wild card of the group based on his A-plus arm talent, gunslinger mentality and experience directing a pro-style offense that produced a quality QB prospect a few years ago (see Carson Wentz).
Measuring 6-5, 222 pounds, Allen is the big, athletic quarterback that coaches and scouts salivate over during the pre-draft process. As a fastball pitcher with unlimited range and outstanding velocity, he can make tight-window throws without flinching. While some of those throws skew toward the "high-risk, high-reward" nature, the Cowboys' QB1 possesses the arm talent to pull it off in most instances. While that is certainly a positive aspect of his game, particularly in dire situations, Allen's tendency to "throw it up" without regard is also a huge concern. He tallied 15 interceptions during his first season as a starter, including seven picks during the team's final five games (1-4 record), which contributed to their late-season slide. Remember how much we discussed Watson's interception totals and Mahomes' gunslinging ways leading up to the draft this spring?
Allen also struggles with his accuracy and ball placement at times, as evidenced by his 56-percent completion rate, so the Wyoming gunslinger isn't the connect-the-dots passer that some teams prefer at the position. Although he still has time to refine his passing skills and master the management part of the game, Allen is more potential than production at this point.
With the other top prospects in college football (Washington State's Luke Falk, Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph, Louisville's Lamar Jackson, Idaho's Matt Linehan, Pittsburgh's Max Browne and Auburn's Jarrett Stidham) also having a number of warts on their games, I think the next wave of QBs might not be the collection of crown jewels that I expected based on the hype. Let's see if that opinion changes after they take the field this fall.