Quote:
Originally Posted by jd1020
His career outside of Coors mirrored what he did last season at the plate. What he is doing this year is better than anything he ever did in Coors.
Outside of guys that are signing mega deals really early like Acuna, none of these contracts are tradeable. They all come with a huge negative value attached as soon as they are signed. The only player that actually ended with surplus value at the time his contract ended, off the top of my head, was Max Scherzer.
You are way underestimating the power of FA while simultaneously ignoring the hurdles of trading a mega deal and trying to use that as the barometer for what Arenado would fetch on the open market.
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His career numbers, yes - but his road performance improved year over year and 2019 demonstrated that he was a strong road performer even with the Coors hangover. That was a fine baseline.
Regarding the FA market - how many big spending teams are likely to be in at 3b? The Sox aren't gonna be. The Dodgers are likely to turn to Vargas. The Yankees are likely to turn to Volpe (w/ Peraza seemingly the better fit at SS). The Phillies and Mets are definite considerations but it seems likely that the Phillies are going to make a push for Trae Turner.
But admittedly it only takes 1 team. And maybe that 1 team is the Mets and maybe they offer him 7/$210. And if so - it's important to remember that the Cardinals presently have the best 3b prospect in baseball in their system. A guy who everyone expected to move to the OF this year but who hasn't. And Walker's played a solid 3b all year in Springfield. There's no reason at all to believe he can't stick there at least for the first several years of his career.
If Arenado opts out and frees up a $35 million salary slot and opens up 3b for Donovan for a season while Walker rounds into MLB form - I don't see the Cardinals having any problem with that at all. Walker becomes the long-term 3b solution with Burleson/Yepez as their fallback if Goldschmidt declines or requests a deal into his 40s.
They'll let him walk at that point.
I simply don't see that Arenado trade, which was essentially a salary dump for some fringe prospects, as a 'mega deal' that was loaded with hurdles anything beyond what offering him a big money FA contract would create. If teams weren't eager to acquire him w/ a deal that included 2 additional prime seasons at discount rates, I don't see why they'd be eager to give him the same AAV for 2 extra years at the decline stages of his career.
The Cardinals simply do not go beyond their 'comfort level' and frankly I think they view player value almost identically to me. In the trade discussion thread with Arenado I stated before any deal seemed likely that the Rox were about $50 million upside down in that deal and I said a trade would never get done because they wouldn't eat that kind of money. Well that turned out to be EXACTLY what the Cardinals insisted on and received. The Cardinals are risk averse as hell - but they're rational to a fault. There's nothing 'rational' about offering a an aggressive hitter a 7 year deal into his late 30s.
The Cardinals won't do it and that's fine. I'd rather keep him at responsible numbers but if the Mets or some other bottomless pit franchise want to go beyond that - let them.