Quote:
Originally Posted by BWillie
So hes at 9.4 WAR for his last 4 years. You want to pay 80M for 9.4 WAR? That is also not even assuming his likely massive decline for the last 4 yearsof the contract. You are likely paying 50% more than that per WAR over the life of the contract.
Thats lighting money on fire. 8.6M surely is not the going rate per WAR. That would be like giving Josh Donaldson a 1 year 80M deal.
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$9 million/WAR is about the going rate for WAR on the market, or at least it has been. True superstar performers like Trout can't get that, but for guys in the 1-2 WAR range, that's been the rate.
At 9/WAR, Hosmer would need to provide 16 wins over he course of the deal, or an average of 2/year, to be neutral value on this deal.
I don't believe many teams calculate defensive value for 1B the way Fangraphs especially or even bref does, because otherwise they'd believe stone-handed butchers like Ryan Howard, Chris Carter, Jose Antrim, etc. are better defenders at 1B than Hosmer, and that makes zero sense. That's a significant die driver in Hosmer's defensive value and overall value.
It's a deal with some real risk for the Padres, but they structured it smartly, and his opt-out IS potentially exercisable.