Quote:
Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower
2008 was the "top" of the economy partially collapsing down on other parts which were faltering or susceptible to failing. It was a runner in a race in ill-fitting shoes and then pulled both Achilles' trying not to blow its kneecaps out.
In this case, the economy as a runner is on PEDs and running at a speed it shouldn't physically reach wherein it crashed into wall that is an indefinite lockdown thanks to the ChiCom Cough.
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Yeah maybe. I’m way out of my depth because I haven’t paid attention to Any of the economic indicators for a decade. Accordingly I don’t have any idea what condition different sectors are in.
A few things are different. 08 was mostly a liquidity problem then the automakers went to ****. But it appears that the government is unwilling to let a liquidity situation exist here. The liquidity problem was because the banks ****ed themselves on the dumbass mortgage backed security debacle. One would HOPE the banks aren’t operating with similar ****tardery propping up their equity statements.
The other thing with the mortgages is when everything went to **** massive swaths of the population became immediately insolvent because of 0 equity loans on their house that were then devalued. My understanding is 0 equity loans don’t exist anymore so hopefully that won’t happen again.
But the liquidity problem was weird. Businesses (including the one I was working for) couldn’t get revolving credit so everything ground to a halt real quick. The. When they could get it it was ****ing expensive despite low fed funds rate. So that kicked out projects and expansions and shit. It seems like they’re sensitive to that. So that too is unlikely.
Then the automakers disaster accounted for a lot of unemployment numbers that year. Fords not great. Airlines are going to have layoffs. Boeing is eating ass. But I’m not sure I see the massive industry wide catastrophes happening here. Well maybe cruise lines.
Now, I agree that the growth was unsustainable and the national debt as a % of GDP most certainly is. Debt numbers aren’t to a watershed yet IMO. And if things don’t grind down for multiple months like they did in 08, I don’t see massive cascading failures. That’s why I said they’d roll with the virus over wrecking the economy if it goes on too long. And if we’ve found a bottom and start working up i think you can reasonably say that retraced the unsustainable moves and the economy can be back in balance.
And as far as criminally stupid stock prices I don’t see anything as irresponsible as the .com bubble.
I just don’t see 30%. Like I said I haven’t paid ****all for attention in a decade so I could be missing massive data points. But WTF do I know? I’ve just been hearing about this shit forever. The economy is always in the edge of tanking.
In fact, this guy did some pretty good work on seasonality in grains so I had lunch with him. He brought this client with him that he had advised to invest heavily in metals. So this ****lehead sold his combines and a binsite and used all the proceeds to buy gold and silver and was considering not buying any corn or bean seed and buying metals instead of putting a crop out. Because goddamn the world was going to end. Right ****ing now. I can’t remember if it was the top or if there was another leg up, but it was close. I tried to be nice but I’m sure it was all over my face that this ****lehead is ruining his life over some Fox News commercial bullshit. My god man.
Bottom line there is always some ratio or indicator or analysis or what the **** ever that says the worlds going to ****ing end; stock market is going to fill some ridiculous gap at 900 or some shit, the last time so and so did this 9 months later we had 20% interest, some ****ing lunar cycle says we are due for a world war, If you put the Dow on this here perspective it looks exactly like the 1637 tulip bubble, sunspots are going to cause a famine, the moon is liked up in perfect correlation to this dudes asshole When he bangs a hooker that’s going to wreck the currencies.
So I could be all the way wrong, but I’ve heard an awful lot of noise and I’ll probably look at projections of 30% unemployment with a bit of skepticism. I’m not trying to be a dickhead, but 30% seems pretty wild with unemployment where we are now and other than Boeing and some cruise lines, there isn’t anything I see that is unreasonably unhealthy.