Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER
No one can time the market but I took out a big chunk on the theory that if the market is going to freak out over 500 cases in northern Italy, what is it going to do when there are 500 cases in Manhattan. If the incubation period can be two weeks and you can spread it asymptomatically then this thing is out and its going to be everywhere soon. I doubt the mortality rate is as high as they say given the fact that they don’t have clear numbers on who is infected, but the news and the threat of news is going to keep the markets depressed until something happens to give investors hope that new negative news won’t fall out of the blue. That’s my $.02 and I certainly could be wrong.
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I agree with you and I'm someone who thinks people are a bit hysterical about this and not thinking about how common the typical flu is. It's very possible the death rate isn't as high as reported because people with minor symptoms haven't come forward.
Still, you have a highly contagious disease with no cure, even if there aren't any quarantines people aren't going to be rushing out to jump on planes or go to restaurants or ballgames. Then you think about how easily it could be spread through a factory or distribution center and knock out a chunk of a workforce. If this thing gets going here you'd think there are pretty high odds it's going to put a dent in the economy.