Quote:
Originally Posted by Bearcat
If it was Chiefs/Bills in the AFCCG this year, do you give the Bills a 50% chance of winning? 51%? 60%?
That's kind of where my mind goes when I see people saying they're the clear favorite for the SB and screen grabs like the one below where a group is unanimously picking the Bills, yet the NFC is apparently wide ****ing open.
And maybe my own interpretation of "clear favorite" is off, but I'd maybe say it means the Bills would win a 7 game series 4-2 or better without a bunch of OT games.
I don't buy it, not right now.... I'd say it's a 4-3 series with a few OT games, where you're more or less lucky to win, because it could have just as easily gone the other way. That's the Chiefs and Bills right now, until proven otherwise in the postseason.
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Yeah, I'd say that characterization of 'heavy favorite' is a bit simplistic because it doesn't take the actual schedule into account.
Because of the Bills division, I give them a 70/30 shot of having the #1 seed and thus the bye and HFA. That alone gives them a pretty decent kicker when calculating SB odds. They will likely have 1 fewer game to play than the rest of the field. When you're talking about odds, that's a HUGE deal.
On a neutral field I'd say they're a 2 point favorite over KC right now. Given that I would expect them to have HFA, I think that would put the line at 5 in a hypothetical AFCCG in Buffalo. And again, given that they are more likely than KC to have the bye due to their schedule, that means they're more likely to even reach that AFCCG than we are.
I mean even a 15% chance of winning the SB is pretty massive. And because of how thin the NFC is, I Think you have the Bucs and Rams as heavy favorites to attend from the NFC, which again, if you're playing odds, gives them strong SB chances.
I'd say the Bills are twice as likely as any other AFC team to win the SB. And at least that big a favorite to get there out of the AFC. It isn't just about talent when talking about these SB odds - it's about the road there. The Bills just have SO many things lining up in their favor.
The Bills would REALLY have to step on their dicks to not be the presumptive favorites out of the AFC come December. I think that's a completely fair statement.