[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Because neither his change or his fastball are very good.

I’d quibble on his FB a bit, when he locates it he’s got a fine FB. I’ve never been a believer in the “3-pitch” starter thing because I’ve seen plenty who make it without, ie Yordano Ventura, Vargas and maybe including Duffy. They all have 1 superior pitch but so does Montgomery IMO.

He doesn't get enough movement on his fastball to turn it into a worm-burner and he doesn't have a big enough gap between his fastball/change (or enough drop on the change) to get guys in a rocking chair with their timing.

Agreed.

If he had a more dynamic fastball or better changeup command, that would be one thing. But both of those pitches are just okay - he needs the third offering to actually matter. And frankly, if your fastball/changeup combination is only average, that 3rd offering had better be pretty damn good as a lefty.

I think location matters a ton with his FB. There aren’t even 2 arms in our system like his. I wonder what a Dave Duncan could do with him.

Like Duncan said - he kinda lost his octane early in his career. At that point you'd better have the kitchen sink to throw at them. A relatively straight 92 mph fastball paired with an 8 mph gap and nominal gloveside run on your change makes you a batting practice pitcher unless you have Tom Glavine's command (Montgomery doesn't), Zack Britton's turbo sinker (Montgomery doesn't) or a 3rd pitch that you can count on.

Nobody has a Britton sinker or Glavine command tho. You’re referencing elite ASG players and he won’t ever be one.

Montgomery needs the latter to be a true asset.

Look at the position KC is in right now. We don’t have the ability to get true “assets” right now. Brad Keller is our best pitcher, no? An asset to us is 169IP of 4.60 fIp and I’d bet on Montgomery doing that over anyone outside of Keller.

As for Duffy - they weren't the same guy when Duffy got his deal. Duffy threw 94 and unlike many lefties was able to bury that 94 inside on righties. If a lefty can do that, he can survive fastball changeup. Additionally, Duffy has a credible major league slider.

Duffy's just about always maintained a 10 mph gap between his fastball and change and that's the magic number, IMO. Do that and you can live there - do less than that and there's just not quite enough separation. Now combine that 10 mph gap with a delivery that allows him to bust RHs inside before they can get the bat out in front of the plate and drive it (the problem most LHs face trying to pitch inside to righties) and you have a damn tough lefty to deal with.

Agreed.

Montgomery's never had those bullets so he's had to have a better pitch mix. If he doesn't, he's shitty.

I’d quibble with the term “shitty”. It’s all relative. He was above avg from 16-8 as a swing guy. And he was fine for us in 19. These are the types of guys we have to take shots on and let them ride 160 IP. I said the same about Homer Bailey. The alternative is Glenn “where do you want it?” Sparkman.