Quote:
Originally Posted by raybec 4
Matt Holliday used to infuriate me in this way. He would hit great when nothing was on the line. 25 home runs but 20 of them came when we were winning by 5 or losing by 10.
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Holliday took a lot of heat for that, yeah. But it was actually unwarranted. His last couple of years were fairly underwhelming in that regard, but from 2009 to 2014, over a 6 season stretch (really 5.5), he racked up nearly 22 WPA. That's 4 points/yr - it's actually exceptional. Goldschmidt is leading the league in the category right now and is likely to end up around 5.5 by season's end.
To average 4/season for around 6 seasons is exceptionally productive and consistent. By comparison, Arenado had 1.8 last season and is on pace for about 1.6 this season.
He's been nowhere close to the reliable offensive difference maker that Holliday was. And that's not to dump on his value - a guy who simply holds serve offensively and is one of the 2 best defensive players at his position in the game is EXTREMELY valuable.
But is that a superstar? Uh.........
Ultimately the game has been on Arenado's bad several times this year - and he hasn't come through with any regularity. He's absolutely been a very good, very valuable player. But he's not without his warts and he's not completely without blame for some of these losses.
You don't make an irrational contract decision to keep the guy if he isn't someone you can count on to come through in those ABs at better than a barely top 50 rate.